RIGHT ON DIAGNOSIS, LOW ON TREATMENT
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A vulnerability analysis of 572 rural districts provided the starting point for NICRA
risks and impacts of climate change that led to the creation of the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) were clear, there was simply no data to choose the vulnerable villages. The Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad, was tasked with preparing the Vulnerability Atlas of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change. CRIDA scientists, in consultation with several organisations, evaluated the vulnerability of 572 rural districts across the country in the largest-ever exercise so far in the country.
The metrics used were a combination of indicators that reflected three components—exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of districts. While sensitivity and exposure indicate the nature and degree to which a region was exposed and affected to climaterelated stimuli respectively, adaptive capacity is a reflection of the ability of a population to cope with climate-related stress. In all, 39 indicators from at least 19 separate sources were chosen to prepare the atlas. The mapping indicators included the agricultural status, availability of water, climatological and meteorological trends and the social-economic status. The database was then used to create a single vulnerability index for each district through a process of repeated weighted averaging. The districts were arranged into five categories reflective of their vulnerability based on the index.
To map future vulnerability, the authors included modeled climatic variability for 2021-50 and 2071-98 relative to the baseline values observed during 1961-1990. Districts for NICRA were chosen according to this atlas. Then the Krishi Vigyan Kendras from the shortlisted districts were asked to select suitable villages to roll out the programme.
Critics, however, point out that this mapping may not paint an accurate picture of vulnerability in the future. Moreover, the social indicators that have been used were taken from the 2001 Census, which might not indicate the actual picture as we approach the 2021 Census.