A long economic quarantine
THE COVID-19 pandemic has not brought to fore the inequality that exists in our society. It is already accepted as an existential hazard in a free market regime. Rather, it shows how the economically marginalised groups suffer in the face of a health emergency of this magnitude. For example, the US. Media reports a large number of people did not approach health centres despite having symptoms of COVID-19 as they simply could not afford it. The US has the lowest per capita availability of hospital beds among developed countries and does not have a universal healthcare system. Its health insurance coverage is also not adequate. The result: several poor patients are forced to choose death over medical consultation.
India is presently on a warpath with the pandemic. Presently, all efforts are to stop the spread of infection. Experts say the spread will reach community transmission level by midApril. Irrespective of this, Indians stare at the situation that Americans are currently dealing with. Government facilities are highly inadequate. Our out-of-pocket health expenditure is so high that it pushes people to poverty in the face of an emergency. In fact, poverty rate would rise by 3 per cent if these expenditures were added to poverty calculations. So, what will happen if COVID-19 spreads across the country? What will it entail for the country’s largely poor population?
For India’s poor, or the dominant rural population, it would be a double whammy. First, daily wagers are already facing job loss due to disruption in the economy caused by the pandemic. Many fisher folk have lost their livelihood due to restrictions on marine produce export. Second, people also have to incur medical expenditure—both for precaution and for treatment of COVID-19. A robust government healthcare infrastructure would have helped, but that is simply not there. Add to this, the seemingly long lockdown across the country that restricts economic activities. For example, to stop mass gatherings many states have closed down shops, malls and even rural local markets. This is an induced demand suppressant. It aggravates the situation as the country is already under an economic slowdown, particularly in rural areas. States like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha are reporting drastic sales reduction in local markets.
But this economic quarantine will continue. A spell of erratic extreme rain events and hailstorms has already damaged crops in some nine states—a news that got buried in the COVID-19 deluge. Even before we are through the COVID-19 pandemic/economic quarantine, the India Meteorological Department’s forecast says we will enter into a severe heatwave spell, starting April through June. Last year, we had one of the worst in recent past. According to Lancet Countdown, that documents climate change impacts on humans, in 2017 India lost 75 billion hours of labour due to rising temperatures as people could not take up regular and sustained work. Manual labour is still the spine of rural economy, gradually displacing agricultural income. It means millions of people are already under economic stress due to slowdown and the COVID-19 disruption will further push them to economic uncertainty. The World Meteorological Organization has already indicated erratic rainfall and more cyclones—June to October—for India this year, besides high temperature episodes. Thus, the majority of workforce in India engaged in agriculture has to endure the economic disruption spilling over to the whole year. At the end, what does it mean?
Within a period of time, people would have slipped further into economic poverty, restricting their capacity to bear shocks like extra hospital expenditure or to remain without regular incomes. But do they have a choice?
What will happen if COVID-19 spreads across the country? What will it entail for the country’s largely poor population?