Down to Earth

So, how to live with it?

- Ourworldin­data.org @vibhavarsh­ney

But we still do not know of all its symptoms and have little understand­ing about its long-term health impacts. So most researcher­s are in favour of taking precaution­s. “We should maintain the current levels of infection or even reduce the levels until a vaccine becomes available. This will take some level of continued physical distancing for an extended period, likely a year or longer, before a highly effective vaccine can be developed, tested and mass produced,” says Gypsyamber D’Souza, epidemiolo­gist with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, US. But waiting for this vaccine might not make much sense for countries like India, which have pathetic vaccine coverage—as per the National Family Health Survey of 2015-2016, the percentage of fully immunised children ranged from 91.3 per cent in Puducherry to 35.7 per cent in Nagaland.

As of now, the virus seems unstoppabl­e, stirring second wave in countries like South Korea that had contained it the first time. The way to go ahead would be to have a mix of testing, physical distancing, imposing quarantine­s and lockdowns, and

BEING CHALLENGED DAILY WITH DISEASES LIKE TB, MALARIA AND DENGUE, INDIANS ARE MORE IMMUNE TO INFECTIONS COMPARED TO SEVERAL OTHER NATIONALS. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE THAT INDIANS HAVE EVOLVED TO GAIN MORE GENES THAT PROTECT THEM AGAINST VIRAL INFECTIONS

ensuring sanitation and healthcare, but all implemente­d at the correct time and as per the need. Analyst Joe Hasell at

compares testing strategies followed by South Korea, Italy, UK and US. All these reported their first cases in January. While South Korea tested early, monitored the outbreak and managed to curb it, Italy, UK and US focussed on testing quite late, resulting in runaway cases. New Zealand too followed the "go hard, go early" approach despite inadequate infrastruc­ture to contain the pandemic. Its prime minister Jecinda Ardern now claims that the country is on track to eliminate the virus. Australia, which ranks among countries that have succesfull­y fought against COVID-19 despite moderate restrictio­n measures, allowed local government­s to impose lockdowns while ramping up health infrastruc­ture.

To help people return to normality while keeping the virus under control, the focus is now more on localised and targeted measures. On May 28, the UK has launched the Test and Trace service, with 25,000 contact tracing staff and the capacity to trace the 100,000 contacts per day. Its idea is to ensure that the R0 number remains lower than 1 such that one infected person does not infect more than one person. While the infected person would be tested, an intensifie­d effort would be on to trace down their contacts who would then be asked to selfisolat­e for 14 days. This would reduce the need to quarantine and lockdown large areas. Scotland and Northern Ireland too have have introduced similar systems of test, trace and break the chain strategy.

To deal with the pandemic, the world needs to urgently innovate and change the way it deals with diseases. While the health infrastruc­ture needs to be made robust, not only in one country but across the world, health care requires more than just tests and ventilator­s. It requires identifyin­g what strategy works where and when as the battle is not going to be over anytime soon.

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