Civil Lines
The pandemic has already created a disadvantaged generation
WE ARE into the 10th month of the COVID-19 pandemic, but we are yet to fully comprehend its countless impacts on our lives. We may be aware of the immediate impacts on our health and economy, but are still missing out on some critical aspects that will affect our future generations. One question that is rarely discussed is this: what will be the impact on the generation born during the COVID-19 pandemic, including children who are under five years of age? The importance of this generation cannot be overlooked as these children will account for about 46 per cent of India's workforce by 2040.
Notwithstanding the development inequality that is all-pervasive in our world, the pandemic generation was born, ironically, in a world healthier and wealthier than ever. But the new generation may not retain the memory of what it took us to endure this pandemic when they grow up. So does this mean they would be a normal generation reading about the pandemic in history textbooks?
Before attempting an answer, here are a few historical reminders of past pandemics or similar crises. Scientists and researchers have found that children born during the 1918 pandemic (or in utero) grew up less educated and were poor as well. Similarly, expectant mothers during the 2008 economic recession gave birth to underweight infants, particularly those from poor families. In 1998, El Niño caused devastating floods in Ecuador. Children born during this period were underweight and stunting continued for five to seven years. The common factor in all these after-effects of such crisis events was the dipping economic status, which led to various impacts.
So, the answer to the aforementioned question is a scary one. Preliminary indicators suggest that the pandemic generation of this century wouldn’t be any different from those who survived the past ones. The recently released Human Capital Index (HCI) of the world, prepared by the World Bank, says that the pandemic generation would be one of the worst victims. The adult generation of 2040 would be a stunted one; they would be left behind in terms of human capital; and, this may well be the toughest development challenge for the world. HCI measures “the human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by her 18th birthday”. This includes the health and education entitlements of a newborn now and how it would impact his/ her future productivity.
If truth be told, the economic impacts of this pandemic will devastate this generation the most for the simple reason that a poor household would not be spending much on health, food and education. There would be higher child mortality and also stunting among those who manage to survive. Besides, millions of children and pregnant mothers have been kept away from essential health services due to the disruption in the systems. According to HCI estimates, child mortality will increase by 45 per cent in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. Analysis shows that a 10 per cent increase in GDP/per capita reduces infant mortality by 4.5 per cent. Looking at various estimates, most countries are going to experience a high GDP loss due to the pandemic. This indicates what would be scary impact on infant mortality.
The COVID-19 pandemic has come at a time when the world was already struggling to reduce malnutrition and poverty. The new index clearly brings out the fact that even if the pandemic is a temporary shock, it would still leave behind crippling impacts on the new generation children. It is time the world got serious about the health and well-being of this generation. It will be criminal to not to add the pandemic newborns to our vast chronically deprived generation that is already enduring a development deficit.
The newborns, those about to be born, and children under five years of age will now be the pandemic’s worst victims in terms of long-term impacts on growth and development
COURSE COORDINATOR