Will power centres close ranks in AIADMK?

The AIADMK Executive Committee that met on Monday has yet again deferred the selection of the party’s chief ministerial candidate to October 7. The ruling party, which has carefully avoided a leadership struggle following the demise of late chief minister J Jayalalithaa, will now have to confront the inevitable – decisively elect the political heir to Jayalalithaa who could steer the party forward – soon. When Jayalalithaa, fondly addressed as ‘Amma’, died in December 2016, her aide VK Sasikala, also known as ‘Chinnamma’, was firmly in control of the party and the administration. She was seen as the chosen one to take the AIADMK government forward barring a few technical glitches such as getting elected as a legislator and steering clear of the criminal cases against her, which were seen as minor deterrents back then. But Sasikala’s grand plans to take full control of the AIADMK was disrupted in February 2017 when she was convicted in the disproportionate wealth case and sentenced to a four-year jail term. With four more years of an elected government to run and the frontrunner for the top post in jail, the two rival factions of the AIADMK under then relatively low-profile Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami and newly minted rebel O Panneerselvam joined together and expelled Sasikala and her family from the AIADMK. While EPS took charge of the government, OPS took control of the party and both have pulled off what many had written off as impossible. However, while a government can be run forming opportunistic alliances and with shrewd management, winning a general election requires much more than that. Since its inception, the AIADMK has been headed by charismatic leaders like MGR and Jayalalithaa who commanded the loyalty of party workers and the admiration of the public. Anyone who has to step into those shoes needs to show the ability to win over the party cadre as well as the confidence of the voter. Trouble has been brewing between the OPS and EPS camps for a while now with supporters of both leaders wanting their leader to be the next chief ministerial candidate. With Sasikala expected to be released from the Parapana Agrahara prison in January 2021, there are already ripples in the AIADMK circles on the impact it will have on the party. The coming months will reveal how these power centres in Tamil Nadu’s largest party battle it out for total control. The past few years have tilted the scales hugely in favour of Palaniswami who has been in the limelight after he took over as Chief Minister eclipsing OPS and his loyalists significantly. The disadvantage for Sasikala is that while her organising skills have been put to test, her connect with the public and her ability to garner votes remain an unexplored territory. She also has family squabbles to sort out. The AIADMK can go for the general elections with the existing dual-leadership arrangement or even accept Sasikala back into the party as its head. But, whether the Tamil Nadu voter will accept the multiple power centres in the AIADMK to DMK’s Stalin, who now exercises full control over his party, remains to be seen. Irrespective of who emerges successful in this tussle, it would be in the interest of the people of the State that a single decisive leader emerges to lead the AIADMK. For, whether the party wins another term or sits in the opposition, a united AIADMK under a strong leader could do the public a lot more good than a broken party with low morale.