Pulling off a surprise in Bihar

If the Bihar results were something of a surprise, it is because the narrative around the election was woven around a few seemingly strong and indisputable strands. First, there was the strong resentment against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar over his perceived non-performance, something that was played up by many sections of the media. Second, there was the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which contested the election this time outside the NDA fold, described as the biggest X-factor. Third, there was the Mahagathbandhan itself, strengthened by the inclusion of the Left parties, and led by a charismatic Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD, who was drawing large and enthused crowds. When a flurry of exit polls predicted the rout of the BJP-JD(U), it seemed all over but the shouting; the assumption was the chief ministership was for Yadav’s taking. So, what happened? First, it is clear that the anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar, which although definitely present, was not strong enough as many of his detractors hoped. The relatively lacklustre performance of the JD(U), in stark contrast to that of alliance partner BJP, suggests there was some antiincumbency. The JD(U)’s poor performance could be partly a result of BJP voters being more reluctant to transfer their votes to JD(U) than the other way around – something that could emerge as an issue between the two parties. There was considerable confusion sown by the Chirag Paswan-led LJP to go on its own; his statements critical of the JD(U) while being decidedly soft of the top BJP leadership, could have furthered the suspicion that he was being used by the BJP to cut the JD(U) down to size. The RJD strategy of forging an alliance between Yadavs and Muslims may have been reflected in the manner it parcelled seats out, but this strategy failed to carry in every corner of the State. That caste and community are major determinants of elections in Bihar is no secret. What the results point towards is a clear divide between the way the State voted in three phases, the Mahagathbandhan performing reasonably well in the first place, with the Dalit vote being split between the NDA and the LJP. It was in the final phase, where there is a sizeable minority population, that possibly led to some Hindu votes consolidating for the BJP and eventually secured the victory. Formally, this is a victory for Nitish Kumar, but it will be no surprise if the Chief Minister himself perceives it as something of a defeat. The JD(U)’s performance suggests he and his party are clearly the junior partners of the BJP, a potential source of friction. In Maharashtra, it was exactly this -- an ascendant BJP posing an existential threat to its partner the Shiv Sena – that caused the latter to eventual breakaway and join hands with its sworn enemies. This reflects a larger dilemma about alliances in general. They could hold fast if they are very unequal. They become shaky when one of two more or less equal partners believes that the other is cannibalising its vote share and growing at its expense. The BJP and the JD(U) may have won the day, but this will do nothing to consolidate their political friendship.