RBI’s MPC starts deliberations on policy rate, decision likely tomorrow

Banking regulator may strive to hold benchmark interest rate at 6.5 per cent

NEW DELHI: The Reserve Bank’s rate-setting monetary policy panel began deliberations on Tuesday amid expectations that the central bank will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent on the back of easing retail inflation and the need to push economic growth.

Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet for three days and the decision would be announced on Thursday, June 8.

After the last MPC meeting in April, the RBI paused its rate hike cycle and stayed with the 6.5 per cent repo rate. Prior to that the central bank had cumulatively hiked the repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022 in a bid to contain inflation.

The MPC is meeting in the backdrop of consumer pricebased (CPI) inflation declining to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April. The Reserve Bank governor recently indicated that the May print would be lower than the April numbers. The CPI for May is scheduled to be announced on June 12.

On expectations from the MPC, Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India said: “We expect a pause in this meeting as growth concerns cannot be overlooked. With the global economy slowing down, there are risks that the slowdown contagion may impact us”.

Globally, there are signs that the Central Banks may also take a pause or go with fewer hikes as runaway inflation takes a breather, Majumdar said, and added this will further help the RBI to maintain the status quo.

Dhruv Agarwala, Group CEO, Housing.com said the RBI is expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged, reflecting the easing concerns surrounding inflation.

“While some voices advocate for a rate cut to provide an impetus to growth, the RBI is likely to exercise caution and wait before contemplating such a step,” he said.

He further said the robust GDP growth rate of 7.2 per cent achieved by the Indian economy in the financial year 2022-23 showcases its remarkable resilience in the face of global challenges.