Split in Muslim votes likely to put BJP in driver’s seat in western UP

LUCKNOW: As the polling date for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh draws near, all eyes are on the seats of Rampur, Moradabad and Sambhal and other seats of western UP, where the Muslims constitute 23 per cent to 42 per cent of the electoral population.

Around 15.34 crore people are eligible to vote in UP - a politically crucial state with 80 Lok Sabha seats where the elections will be held in seven phases from April 19.

According to the election schedule, eight parliamentary constituencies will vote in the first phase of the Lok Sabha polls on April 19.

These are Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina (SC), Moradabad, Rampur and Pilibhit.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 62 seats and its ally Apna Dal (S) two seats, brushing aside the challenge of the SP-BSP alliance.

The Congress won the lone Rae Bareli seat of Sonia Gandhi.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was the biggest gainer in the alliance with 10 seats.

Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) won five seats and the smallest partner Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) couldn’t open its account in the polls.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the alliance of the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal had achieved considerable success in the Muslim-dominated region of western UP.

However, the political equations have completely changed his time.

The BSP has decided to contest the elections alone this time, while the RLD, which has some influence in the Jat community of western UP, is standing with the BJP this time.

The Samajwadi Party and the Congress are contesting the polls in an alliance this time, with the grand old party attempting to regain its lost ground in Uttar Pradesh.

The Lok Sabha constituencies in western UP, where there is a sizeable Muslim population are —- Rampur (42 per cent), Amroha (32 per cent), Saharanpur (30 per cent), Bijnor, Nagina and Moradabad (28 per cent each), Muzaffarnagar (27 per cent), Kairana and Meerut (23 per cent each) and Sambhal (22 per cent).

Apart from this, the Muslim voters constitute 19 per cent of the electoral population each in Bulandshahr, Baghpat and Aligarh.

In 2019, the BJP got the benefit of a split in Muslim votes in some seats of western Uttar Pradesh, and its candidates registered wins from Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Baghpat and Aligarh Lok Sabha seats.

In the changed circumstances, the biggest concern for the SP-Congress alliance will be to prevent the scattering of Muslim votes because its victory on many Muslim-dominated seats can be possible only if the Muslim votes are united in its favour.

Political analyst Parvez Ahmed believes that this time the biggest challenge for the Samajwadi Party is to keep the Muslim voters united in its favour.

Political analyst Parvez Ahmed believes that this time the biggest challenge for the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance is to keep the Muslim voters united in its favour