Early signs hint at favourable monsoon this year: IMD chief

NEW DELHI: As summer scorches large parts of the country, weather scientists have picked up early signs of a favourable monsoon season this year in fading El Nino conditions and lesser snow cover over Eurasia.

India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said large-scale climatic phenomena were conducive for the southwest monsoon, which is crucial for the largely rain-fed Indian economy.

“This year El Nino is fading. By the beginning of June, it may become a neutral condition,” Mohapatra said, referring to the warming of the central Pacific Ocean which is considered one of the factors to impact the southwest monsoon.

He said the second half of the July-September monsoon season may witness La Nina conditions, which refer to the cooling of the central Pacific Ocean.

“La Nina is good for the Indian monsoon. And neutral conditions are good. However, El Nino is not good. In 60 per cent of years, El Nino has harmed the Indian monsoon, but last year, it did not have a negative impact,” Mohapatra said.

“This year also the snow cover is less. That is another positive factor. So large-scale processes are conducive for monsoon,” he said.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, critical for

El Nino is fading. By June, it may become a neutral condition. The second half of July-Sept may see La Nina conditions, which is good for Indian monsoon

— Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD D-G

the agriculture sector that accounts for about 14 per cent of the GDP and employs more than half of its 1.4 billion population.

India received “below-average” cumulative rainfall of 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm in the 2023 monsoon season, which was attributed to a strengthening El Nino.