Locking horns
Two days ahead of the Lok Sabha election, a pre-poll survey commissioned by Thanthi TV said the ruling DMK and its allies are comfortably positioned against archrivals, the AIADMK-BJP combine in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Per the survey, the DMK-led INDIA bloc is expected to bag over 30 of the 40 seats, while AIADMK and allies are likely to draw a blank. The major opposition in Tamil Nadu, headed by EPS and Co might be ahead of its ally-turned-adversary, the BJP, in terms of vote-share. But the saffron party seems to have a better chance at pocketing one seat.
As citizens keep their date with destiny, it helps contextualise these developments through the prism of TN’s Lok Sabha election history. We are among the 21 states going to the polls in phase 1 of the seven-phase election. The state has witnessed a tradition ever since the DMK came to the forefront in 1967, heralding a political epoch headlined by the party, as well as its other Dravidian offshoot, the AIADMK. Compared to any other state, TN had MPs only from two political fronts in every general election, never ceding ground to an independent candidate or a leader from a third political front. All 39 seats in the state were picked up by either the DMK-led or AIADMK-led alliances since 1977, except of course in 2014, a year which saw 37 seats going to the AIADMK and the remaining two (Kanniyakumari and Dharmapuri) to the NDA.
TN has remained a battlefield for coalitions led by DMK and AIADMK. The fundamentals aren’t different this time – the DMK is allied with the Congress, CPI, CPM, VCK, MDMK, IUML, KMDK. The AIADMK has allied with the DMDK, SDPI, PT, while the BJP is leading a front comprising PMK, TMC (M), and the TTV-Dhinakaran led breakaway AIADMK faction – the AMMK. Star-power wise, Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam, which partnered with DMK, is not contesting in any seat, and neither is the political outfit fronted by actor Vijay.
One must consider the state that the AIADMK finds itself in now. Following an acrimonious split with the BJP, the Dravidian party has witnessed the defection of as many as 16 of its members in February — 15 former MLAs and one former MP, who joined the BJP. Although, the party played down the impact of the defections saying those who had jumped ship had been politically inactive for quite a while and would not be helpful to the BJP in getting votes. EPS, who rose from relative obscurity has nevertheless held his flock together despite a major internal tussle for power and has thrown into the arena, a new set of gladiators - young, affluent and ambitious.
Since 1962, no national party has won a substantial number of state seats on its own strength. And that is the bastion that the saffron party is keen on breaching, with the hopes of denting the bipolar polity of Tamil Nadu. The chances of the BJP winning seats are doubtful, considering PM Modi’s limited traction here. Having conducted as many as eight road shows in Tamil Nadu, it remains to be seen as to how the BJP’s fortunes will play out in the aftermath of the voting on Friday. While the DMK is grounded in its Tamil identity and regional ideology that rejects Hindutva, its national interests are intertwined with the fate of the INDIA bloc, and how that bloc stands up to BJP’s nationalism-driven electoral run.