WHAT LIES AHEAD : NEAR-TERM PIC­TURE

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SPOT NIFTY : In­dian stock mar­ket bears con­tinue to hold the con­trols of the mar­kets with a se­ries of neg­a­tive do­mes­tic and global events sup­port­ing the south­ward move. Mar­kets also re­main cau­tious ahead of rate hikes by both Fed and RBI be­fore the year end, The Q2FY19 earn­ings data would most likely dis­ap­point amid ris­ing crude oil prices and ru­pee fall­ing to its record low lev­els and, mostly im­por­tantly, mar­kets tak­ing a po­lit­i­cal view with the state elec­tions at the doorstep.

The bench­mark in­dices shed more than 3% from the cor­re­spond­ing day of the last week. The Mid-cap and Small-cap in­dices too tum­bled but at a slower pace, los­ing 3% and 2.3%, re­spec­tively. On the sec­toral front, Me­tal in­dex led the down­side move and slipped 7.4% and Realty fol­lowed with 5.7% loss. The only sec­tor that stayed flat was the Bankex. Tech­ni­cally, our bench­mark in­dex Nifty had formed a re­ver­sal Doji on Oc­to­ber 8, which turned into a whip­saw on Oc­to­ber 11, where Nifty fell be­low 10198 at 10138 level. Hence, if we con­sider the cur­rent move to have ini­ti­ated an­other down­side rally post three days' breather, we hold 10100-10000 as the cru­cial sup­port zone, fol­lowed by 9950, which is a trend re­ver­sal level. The lev­els of 9780-9680 will be the medium term sup­ports.

How­ever, Nifty has man­aged to close above 10200 on a clos­ing ba­sis, and hence, if it lifts it­self up for short-cov­er­ing in the first place, we hold 10375, fol­lowed by 10520, as the re­sis­tances.

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