WHAT LIES AHEAD : NEAR-TERM PIC­TURE

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SPOT NIFTY : I The In­dian stock mar­kets since the be­gin­ning of Novem­ber had made no ma­jor head­way and spent the first half of the month within a range. The fall in the crude oil prices helped ease in­vestors' con­cerns over in­fla­tion and fis­cal deficit along with stronger ru­pee, which bol­stered in­vestors' op­ti­mism in the do­mes­tic econ­omy. The volatil­ity in the global mar­kets kept the mar­kets jit­tery at higher lev­els. The broader in­dices have un­der­per­formed the bench­mark in­dices. Over the last cou­ple of weeks, the Nifty has been fluc­tu­at­ing in the range of 10,440-10,650. It has made sev­eral at­tempts to cross the hur­dle of 10,650 on the higher side but all in vain, as traders pre­ferred to take prof­its off the ta­ble at the up­per band of the range. In the com­ing week, we con­tinue to ex­pect the zone of 10,650-10,760 pos­ing stiff re­sis­tance for the in­dex. Un­less Nifty suc­cess­fully moves past this 110point re­sis­tance area, we do not see any sig­nif­i­cant move in the in­dex. Man­i­fold re­sis­tances are po­si­tioned in this re­gion, which is 200-day SMA placed at 10,756 and the bear­ish gap which was cre­ated on Oc­to­ber 4. On the down­side, the zone of 10,390-10,440 is a cru­cial sup­port level for the Nifty as mul­ti­ple sup­ports are present in this re­gion. In a nut­shell, the in­dex has con­sol­i­dated in a range for a cou­ple of weeks and has not shown any ma­jor cor­rec­tive de­cline, thus we as­sume it is mak­ing a strong base, and af­ter a strong base for­ma­tion, the in­dex needs to move past the level of 10,760 for any sig­nif­i­cant up­move.

NIFTY DE­RIV­A­TIVES: The In­dian Volatil­ity In­dex (VIX), a gauge for mar­ket’s short term ex­pec­ta­tion of volatil­ity, dipped 2.02 per cent to end at 18.45. Nifty Novem­ber 2018 fu­ture last price stood at 10,623 at a pre­mium of 6.30 points over the spot clos­ing of 10,616.70. Nifty De­cem­ber 2018 fu­ture last price stood at 10,665 at a pre­mium of 48.30 point over the spot clos­ing of 10,616.70. The Nifty Put-Call Ra­tio (PCR) Open In­ter­est-wise stood at 1.49 for the Novem­ber month con­tract. Among Nifty calls, 10,700 strike price from the Novem­ber month ex­piry was the most ac­tive Call. Among Nifty Puts, 10,600 strike price for the Novem­ber month ex­piry was the most ac­tive Put. For the Novem­ber se­ries, the max­i­mum OI out­stand­ing for Puts was at 10,000 strike price, and that for Calls, it was at 11,000 strike price.

NIFTY

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