TEJASHWI YADAV
Tejashwi Yadav, son of Lalu Yadav, was down and out after the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The Bjpled NDA decimated his RJD in Bihar, winning 39 of the 40 seats. The RJD drew a blank.
Then came the 2020 Assembly elections, when Tejashwi surprised Prime Minister Narendra Modi and shocked Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. In a little over a year, the RJD had emerged as the single largest party with 75 MLAS. The Rjd-congressleft “Grand Alliance” came within striking distance of knocking out the NDA in Bihar.
They NDA got 125 seats against 108 for the Grand Alliance. Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) was reduced to 43 MLAS but the NDA led by him retained power by a whisker.
From then, Tejashwi has gone from strength to strength. He is in the centre of opposition politics in Bihar, fine-tuning his strategy. It is paying dividends—the RJD wrested the Bochaha seat from the incumbent BJP in the recently concluded byelection.
Speaking about what turned Tejashwi’s fortunes, RJD national spokesman and Rajya Sabha MP Manoj Jha said: “His complete focus is on issues concerning the common people. He promised 10 lakh government jobs in one go in the event of securing power and that struck a chord with young people.”
Taking a cue from his father, known for connecting with the masses, Tejashwi coined the slogan “kamai, dawai, padhai, sichai (job, medicine, education, irrigation)” in every campaign meeting. He drew more crowds than Modi, Amit Shah, Adityanath and Nitish, all of whom were campaigning feverishly in Bihar then.
What made Tejashwi’s words more credible was his alliance with the Left—mainly the CPI ML (Liberation), but also the CPI and CPI(M). This was worked out by Lalu’s old associate and veteran socialist leader, Jagdanand Singh, the State RJD president, whom Lalu had roped in to “guide” Tejashwi. Jagdanand ensured that Tejashwi incorporated the 25-point charter of resolutions drafted by the CPI-ML (Liberation) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya. This party —very effective at the grass-roots level in Bihar—also provided cadre support to the Grand Alliance against the well-oiled and cash-rich NDA. The Congress got 70 seats, which probably marred the prospects of the Grand Alliance.
Having lost to the NDA by a whisker in 2020, Tejashwi is cautious about 2024. Manoj Jha said: “There is little doubt that the Rjd-left-congress Grand Alliance will take on the NDA in Bihar in 2024. But the Leader of Opposition in Bihar, while appreciating the importance of the Congress, has repeatedly said that the grand old party should contest against the BJP in about 220 seats where it is in a direct fight with it and leave the regional parties (read RJD) in the vanguard in the States they are capable to take on the BJP.”
The advantage of the Grand Alliance at this stage is that the NDA looks to be a divided house. Of late, Nitish has publicly opposed the BJP on some issues. For instance, he ignored the BJP and organised an all-party meeting in early June announcing a caste-based census, in effect accepting Tejashwi’s demand.
Secondly, Nitish Kumar opposed the uniform civil code and the national register of citizens in Bihar. He described the loudspeakers issue in the Bjp-ruled Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh as “nonsense” and participated in iftar parties with Tejashwi.
There is verifiable evidence of Nitish and Tejashwi getting closer. Local media and political circles are agog with the speculations that Nitish might switch to the Grand Alliance again. There was a flutter in the NDA camp when Nitish denied a third term to the JD(U)’S former national president and Union Steel Minister R.C.P Singh in the Rajya Sabha. Needless to say, Singh’s ministerial berth is in jeopardy. The grapevine has it that Nitish Kumar denied him the Rajya Sabha berth simply because the latter had become “more loyal” to Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
Manoj Jha said: “There are indications but it will be unwise to speculate at this stage if Nitish ji will join the Grand Alliance. Let us see how things unfold. What we are sure of is that our Grand Alliance is better placed than the BJP in Bihar in the context of the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The BJP has most of its partners deserting it because of its arrogance and crass anti-minority and anti-people policies whereas more and more parties are looking towards the Grand Alliance.”
It is difficult to draw a conclusion about 2024 on the basis of the stakeholders’ performance in the Assembly election. The context and issues in the two elections will be different. However, thanks to a variety of factors, Bihar will not be as easy for the BJP as Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh might be in 2024.