‘Shiv Sena is unlikely to fade into oblivion’
Interview with Kumar Ketkar, veteran and outspoken Marathi journalist and member of the Rajya Sabha.
KUMAR KETKAR is a senior journalist who spent 25 years as editor of Marathi newspapers Loksatta and Divya Marathi. He has been a bold and fair critic of the RSS, the BJP and the Shiv Sena. He was nominated to the Rajya Sabha in 2018 but has an active presence in journalism. Speaking to Frontline, he placed the current political crisis in Maharashtra in historical perspective and delineated the events that led up to the fall of Uddhav Thackeray and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Excerpts:
The BJP had sworn revenge on the Shiv Sena after 2019 and seems to have achieved it.
There is a complex history to this that stretches back to the 1980s, but the short answer is: revenge was of course a motive. But mere vengeful feelings were not enough. It was necessary to fuel hostility within the Sena. That could be achieved only by a multi-pronged attack right inside the castle. That approach included a sustained campaign to undermine Uddhav Thackeray’s authority, identifying the “weakest” links in the Sena, and as Sharad Pawar repeatedly said, through raids by agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate, systematic blackmail, pressure through the media, and even threats. The initial raids were on the residences, offices, and properties of some who finally went on a junket to Suratguwahati-goa. Suddenly inquiries against them were suspended. Eknath Shinde, the chieftain of the rebels, was once a target of the BJP for huge and unaccounted wealth accumulated over the last two decades. Today, he is their biggest asset. Fadnavis knew that Shinde was ambitious, had “substantial resources”, and a large network of activists obliged by him and could be lured into breaking the Sena.
It was personal to an extent. But it was more than personal in the sense the Modi-led BJP does not want any party or individual to question or challenge it. In recent days, Uddhav had become more vocal and strident. For instance, he said recently that except for building concentration camps, the Modi regime was doing everything that the Nazis did.
What is left for Uddhav Thackeray now? Will the much prized loyalty of the Sena be replaced by a desire to be with the powerful?
What is left for Uddhav is a difficult sociological question than political. At the outset, it must be understood that the Shiv Sena was born and shaped on the streets of Mumbai and Thane. It is not a regional party in the classical sense. It does not have roots in the peasantry, which regional parties usually have. It is neither Left nor Right as it has no ideology as such.
The core of the Sena’s identity politics was “Marathi manoos” [son of the soil]. That struck a chord with the vast number of unemployed Marathi youth as well as lower middle and working classes.
So the Shiv Sena grew from bottom up, inspired by Balasaheb Thackeray’s aggressive, even violent, speeches that led to the image of the Sena as a rowdy, reckless, and violent outfit.
Uddhav had seen this Sena as an adolescent but could not identify with it. He is a “new” product of the “old” Sena. He began to emerge as an upper caste, higher middle class, urban heir to a legacy that was rooted in rowdyism and even local mafia. But those who grew up in the “old” Sena school of thought could not identify themselves with Uddhav’s leadership and style and sober speeches. So, at a cultural level there were two Senas: one was seen as “uncouth” and the other was trying to become “respectable”.
The “old” Shiv Sena could not really spread its
tentacles in western Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Marathwada or northern Maharashtra (Khandesh) and had no hope of coming to power. The Vajpayee-led BJP helped it obtain the double identity of Marathi plus Hindu. The destruction of the Babri Masjid helped the Sena. The new middle class was given the “respectable” identity of Hindutva. As a result, the gap between the rowdy and the respectable was filled by militant Hindutva.
The simple definition of Hindutva, then and now, was being strongly “anti-muslim” and of course “antipakistan” .... The violent destruction of the Babri Masjid was, then and even now, a “proud” moment for Hindus. Balasaheb Thackeray quickly jumped on to the Hindutva bandwagon by declaring that he was proud of the Shiv Sainiks who participated in the mayhem. It is this legacy of “violent action” of the Hindu-marathi lumpens that is being projected by Eknath Shinde to mobilise and split the Sena.
Uddhav was carefully trying to distance himself from that tradition and was projecting himself as a “respectable” and “urbane” Mumbaikar, rather than a Marathi-hindu. He has alienated the “old” Sena. The BJP under Modi practises violent Hindutva and the politics of hate. That is what brought Amit Shah, Fadnavis, and Shinde together.
Neither Shinde nor his 40 followers understand the concept of Hindutva. They don’t care as long as they hit at Uddhav for not following militant Hindutva or hate politics. The threats of the ED, Income Tax Department, or criminal proceedings were given a “politically acceptable” ideology and slogan of Hindutva. Now the rebels can publicly say that they did not betray the Sena, nor were they blackmailed, but only came out to promote and protect the Hindutva identity.
It seems unlikely that Shiv Sena will just die or disappear into political oblivion. It is true that Uddhav as well as Shiv Sena are facing an existential crisis. Uddhav simply inherited the party. His skill has not been seen so far in actually mobilising, organising and coordinating the party. But he has shown skill in maintaining the organisation, in a sort of “management” pattern.
Eknath Shinde can challenge the leadership and indeed has also disrupted the party. But he will not be able to give the party its legacy, charisma, or the Thackeray surname. Dynasty does matter, though it is not enough to create a formidable party outfit.
The ground-level Shiv Sainik is emotionally attached to Thackeray. But whether that emotion will translate into political votes remains to be seen. The NCP and Congress cannot really rescue Uddhav and his Sena in Mumbai. The Sena too has practised anticongressism. It is hazardous to predict the future because neither the “games” of Amit Shah nor Uddhav’s thus far untested abilities for hard campaigning are predictable.
Legally, the Thackeray faction seems to have a leg to stand on. Can you foresee what forces will be acting to influence decisions?
We have seen how the governments in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh were toppled and the governments in Goa and Manipur or Meghalaya were formed. Given the manipulative skills of Shah and other strategists, the decisions of the Election Commission and courts could go in Shinde’s favour.
But almost all legal and constitutional experts have said that there has been a blatant violation of constitutional, legal and moral propriety— the manner in which the confidence vote was taken, the way the disqualification issue was sorted out, and the way the newly installed Speaker was allowed to take a call. If the Election Commission and the courts take a different view, the situation can change.
For instance, the legislative majority has never determined the “real” and legitimate party. The organisation is spread far and wide, in over 200 shakhas. The shakha pramukhs and other senior functionaries have not yet deserted Uddhav and his Sena. If the majority of them leave him and join the Shinde faction, then Uddhav’s fate is sealed. But if they choose to stay with Uddhav and regard the rebels as betrayers of the organisation, then the symbol and the status of the Sena as the legitimate party will survive.
What forces will operate in influencing their decision? The most important is the assessment of the prospects in the 2024 election. All the State legislators and MPS of the Sena had fought the 2019 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections as the BJP’S alliance partners. They are not comfortable with the new partners—the NCP and the Congress. Distribution of tickets would mean collaborating with the “enemy” of yesteryears.
Election funding is the most crucial issue today. The BJP has huge financial muscle, which no party can match. So the bread is buttered on both sides if they go with the BJP. They cannot raise that kind of funding and the Congress and NCP are unlikely to help them. Electoral pragmatism will be the clincher, not loyalty to Uddhav or Hindutva.
Hindutva, in any case, is a camouflage and an excuse to get out of the ED/I-T/CBI trap. The fear of arrest, blackmail, and possible electoral defeat, and the most likely return of the Modi government at the Centre are the factors influencing their choice. That is how the legislative majority will be reflected in the organisational majority.
The only negative factor for Eknath Shinde is absence of charisma and credibility. So, it is not a fight for any principle or even politics of Hindutva: just political opportunism on the one hand and emotional attachment to Uddhav Thackeray on the other.
Read full interview online at frontline.thehindu.com
we met. I used to leave at night when all the MLAS were sleeping and return in the morning before they woke,” he told a House that roared with laughter.
By giving Shinde the top post, the BJP has demonstrated its cool confidence. The not-so-subtle message that is given out is that it will play puppet master.
THACKERAY’S ‘COTERIE’
Apart from the Hindutva issue, there was some dissatisfaction in the Sena and for this Thackeray can be held responsible. When Shinde said that the “coterie around him has brought the party to this state”, it would have touched a chord with many in the Sena. A finger has been pointed at Thackeray’s wife, Rashmi, who has always been ambitious for her husband. When Thackeray and Amit Shah were discussing the modalities of power-sharing prior to the 2019 election, she was reportedly present, according to reliable sources. According to party insiders, she played the persuasive role when it came to breaking with the BJP and tying up with the NCP and the Congress.
As is the wont in many dynastic families, Rashmi brought in her own people. Her sister’s husband liaised with the BJP and her nephew was made secretary of the Yuva Sena. When Bal Thackeray was ailing, she is understood to have strictly controlled access to him in his last days. After her mother-in-law’s death, she automatically took over the women’s wing of the Sena. In September 2019, when Aaditya Thackeray entered the political fray and won his Worli seat, he took his MLA’S oath as “Aaditya Rashmi Uddhav
Thackeray”—something that spoke as highly of Uddhav as it did of his wife. In March 2020, she was appointed editor of Saamna. Such is her hold on party matters that she is also referred to as the Sena’s vice president, albeit behind her back.
For a number of years, there have been complaints that Uddhav Thackeray’s personal assistant, Milind Narvekar, prevents access to his boss, particularly during the time he was Chief Minister. Narvekar has been with the family for about 30 years. In December 2020, he was elected as chairman of the Mumbai T20 League’s Governing Council at the Mumbai Cricket Association. In September 2021, he was recommended by Thackeray and subsequently appointed by the Government of Andhra Pradesh as a member of the Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanam Trust.
One lingering question remains. How did no one have any idea about Shinde’s plan until it was too late? In his speech Shinde said it had been brewing for long and did not happen overnight. He even indicated that three more MLAS (at the time of Frontline going to press) were ready to join him. It is incredible that no MVA leader was aware of a brewing rebellion until MLAS were smuggled off to Surat.
Sena MPS are now turning restive and want Thackeray to patch up with Shinde. Thackeray has reportedly said that moves need to be made from the other side. There are 18 Sena MPS from Maharashtra, one of whom is Shinde’s son and is with his father’s faction.
Thackeray believes that the entire exercise was part of a plan to decimate the Sena, and he is probably right. He has been gamely trying to keep his flock together. While addressing Sena district presidents, Thackeray challenged the new government to call for mid term elections, confident that the electorate would vote his Sena back to power. He said it was an insult to the Constitution to run the Legislative Assembly in an arbitrary manner. “This is a BJP ploy to end the Shiv Sena, I dare them to hold mid term elections in the State. Instead of playing all these games, we will go to the court of the people. If we are wrong, people of the State will send us home, and if you [the new government] are wrong, then people will send you home,” said a statement issued by the Sena after his meeting.
After he won the trust vote, Shinde declared his broad intentions for the State as “taking forward Hindutva” as well as a “development agenda”. He said that his government would reduce the VAT on fuel prices and give a boost to agriculture. The new government assured the State it would not indulge in the politics of vendetta. However, one of the first decisions announced was the reversal of an order to stop construction of a car shed for the city’s Metro project in a designated forest area. Environmentally conscious citizens had opposed it and presented an alternative site, which was accepted by the MVA government. After that, a slew of other decisions, primarily those taken by Aaditya Thackeray, have been negated. m