‘Rainfall to see considerable dip in next 15 days’

NEW DELHI: A surprisingly feisty southwest monsoon has resulted in 24% surplus rainfall across India, leading to deadly floods in some parts while easing worries of a drought. But here’s the upshot: mid-July onwards could be bad and August nasty.

We have not yet beaten the El Nino weather pattern but have definitely been better off so far with robust showers.

“There will be a considerable dip in rainfall activity in the next 15 days,” a Met official said. July delivers over a third of the rainy season’s total precipitation. Mid-July is when summer crops, accounting for nearly half of the country’s annual food output, need a second round of watering.

The Met has forecast the monsoon will be within 88% of the average of 89 centimetres (35 inches). That is a “deficient” monsoon, a notch lower than the milder “below normal” category. Within 94-106%, the monsoon is normal.

The upswing in June has been phenomenal. For instance, the 44% higher rainfall from June 18-24 allowed farmers to sow a range of crops. These rains replenished 91 nationally important reservoirs, whose lev- els now stand at 146% more than the 10-year average and, therefore, a surplus.

So, are we home with a normal monsoon? Not really, if you read the risk factors. The answer lies in a meteorological tug-of-war in the oceans. Forecasters are closely watching a key Indian Ocean barometer, called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), that can at times protect the monsoon from being shot down by the El Nino.