Welcome to another year of Trump, technology and football
Early 2018, I will scrounge to book tickets for the football World Cup in Russia. The year belongs to football. From 14 June to 15 July, we will forget political spats, economic woes, social injustices and adore the beautiful game.
Elsewhere, in 2018 Donald Trump will continue astonishing us with measures to save American jobs for Americans. He is a businessman and may tackle the American debt of USD 19.8 trillion, through ingenious trade deals with China and Japan. Expect the unexpected, from Trump. Hopefully his business instincts will prevail over his politics.
Angela Merkel will sadly lose shine. She had been the beacon of hope in Europe. Theresa May will spend sleepless nights negotiating a cantankerous divorce under Brexit. Europe will look up to French President Emmanuel Macron for leadership.
Putin with cult-like leadership status in Russia, will be re-elected till 2023 and may continue infuriating with his support to Syria. Brazil will tussle, unsure of its leaders, including President Michel Temer.
Middle East will continue to be furiously volatile. Syria and Yemen will haemorrhage with the pains of hunger, refugees, and cholera. Expect Saudi Arabia to play an assertive role in the Middle East. Women will drive and work; youngsters will watch movies in Saudi from 2018.
Narendra Modi will drive GDP growth and jobs, before the 2019 elections. Rahul Gandhi will be aggressive. China’s Xi is well ensconced, with another term.
Shinzo Abe having won another term will restructure the Japanese economy, but growth may elude him.
Global economic growth will be positive, cruising between 3.7 and 4%, a marginal improvement from the 3.6% in 2017. The US growth may stay at around 2%. European Union could see a growth of around 1.9 to 2%. However, growths will be static in China at about 6.4% and in India at about 7%.
Global inflation will be around 3% but will be higher in the developing countries like India at about 5% and Brazil at 4%. Growth in India will be neutralised by price increases. Across the world, commoners are under pressure and will seek benefits, medical services and pensions.
Commodity prices may rise marginally. Oil, which has averaged at 53 USD a barrel in 2017, is likely to move to 60 USD per barrel due to augmenting demand and cuts in production by producer countries. Foodgrain prices will increase marginally by 2 to 4%. Even then food will not be available in strife-torn countries like Sudan or in drought impacted countries like Ethiopia. Gold prices will hold around USD 1,250 per ounce. It remains a wise investment.
So, the international economy will remain steady. Investors will continue to dance with joy as their stock indices jump. Businesses may hire and spend more. Global consumers may open their wallets in 2018 to buy Guccis and Rolexes. Nevertheless, nations must guard against overconfidence.
Poverty is the biggest problem confronting the world. Large swathes of the world population live in slums, e.g. India 24%, Liberia 66%, Somalia 74%, Iran 47%, South Asia 31% and Sub-Saharan Africa 55%.
Poverty is also fuelled by massive inequalities in the world. An Oxfam report 2017, reveals that just eight rich men, have as much wealth as is owned by the 3.6 billion of the bottom population of the world, i.e. half the global population. Again, 2.4 billion people need improved sanitation and 844 million need access to drinking water.
Smart corporations will become market leaders without owning assets. Amazon does not own production factories or large stores. They provide the best customer service in the world, even though you do not meet any employee.
Again, consider Uber. The largest global car hiring company, does not own a car. Technology is changing business paradigms. By 2030 computers may be smarter than human beings.
The first driverless car is expected in 2018. Then you need not own a car. Just call for it and it will takes you where you want. Artificial Intelligence and robots will replace jobs. Robots will undertake manifold agricultural and industrial functions.
We have to re-engineer our lives and careers, to survive in a world reigned by software and technologies.
In all these discontinuities, for a month the world’s eyes will be on excellence, at the FIFA World Cup. Russia and Putin will exult.
Hopefully Tiger Woods will sparkle again in 2018. Federer and Nadal will battle for the tennis crown. Virat Kohli will continue devastating cricketing milestones to become the greatest batsman ever.
Women across the world may feel safer, after the “Me Too”, campaign, courtesy Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein.
Hopefully Brad Pritt or Tom Cruise will make stirring films like “Citizen Kane”, “High Noon” or “Last Train from Gun Hill”, which may inspire a generation lost in the social media like Facebook, Twitter, to social service and leadership. There is a big world beyond laptops and smart phones, like mountains, rivers, flowers, clouds and sunsets.
We will wait for cures for AIDS and cancer, two huge killers of our times.
The Big Four, i.e. Trump, Putin, Xi and Abe all have safe tenures for three to five years. Perhaps they can focus on the global economy and on ending the misery of battle weary Syria and Yemen.
So, our best expectation for 2018 can be: continuance of global growth of 3.8 to 4%, President Trump being politically discreet, end of wars in Syria and Yemen, few job losses due to robots and artificial intelligence and no further loss of privacy due to digitisation and social media.
OUR BEST EXPECTATION FOR 2018 CAN BE: US PRESIDENT TRUMP BEING POLITICALLY DISCREET, END OF WARS IN SYRIA AND YEMEN, FEW JOB LOSSES DUE TO ROBOTS AND NO FURTHER LOSS OF PRIVACY DUE TO DIGITISATION