TTV Dhinakaran, the X-factor, may upend TN’s bipolar fights
Fifty six-year-old TTV Dhinakaran is the big disruptor in Tamil politics that had for long settled into the easy rhythm of a twoparty system. Dhinakaran, a nephew of VK Sasikala, the longtime aide of late Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa, can potentially help the opposition alliance led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) with not only a big slice of the 39 Lok Sabha (LS) seats, but also the chance to form a new government in the state.
In the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) family-feud post Jayalalithaa’s death, Dhinakaran and Sasikala, who is currently serving a jail sentence, were ejected. Court rulings confirmed the Election Commission’s decision to allot the AIADMK’s two leaves symbol to the faction led by chief minister Edappadi Palaniswami (known as EPS) and his deputy, O Panneerselvam (known as OPS). Now, with his new outfit Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) and his own poll symbol of a “gift box,” the EPS-OPS-led AIADMK government is in Dhinakaran’s crosshairs. If he can restrict the AIADMK to less than eight seats in the 22 assembly bypolls to be held alongside the LS elections on April 18, a change in the state government would be inevitable.
THEVAR POWER
Dhinakaran is a Thevar, one of Tamil Nadu’s most influential backward classes, that is numerically concentrated in the central, eastern (the Cauvery delta) and southern parts of the state. If Dhinakaran can prise away about 10% of AIADMK votes in these parts, it would make life easy for the DMK-led alliance. If he makes a bigger dent across the state, the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance could face a rout. The AIADMK under both founder MG Ramachandran and successor Jayalalithaa had assiduously cultivated the Thevar vote bank. Of the 36 assembly seats dominated by Thevars in the southern districts of Madurai, Theni, Dindugal, Sivaganga, Virudhunagar and Ramanathapuram, the AIADMK won 23 in 2016. OPS, also a Thevar, was trusted by Jayalalithaa enough to be appointed chief minister twice when she had to step down on account of court convictions in corruption cases.