A divided America helped Democrats
In a political landscape where the strength of both parties is almost equal, the Democrats benefited from the fear of Donald Trump, the abortion ruling and a reasonable governance record. There was no red wave in the midterms
As the Democrats entered the final lap of the campaign for the midterm elections, they were weighed down by the past, for the party in power in the White House has historically lost control of the United States Congress. They were anxious about the present, for President Joe Biden’s popularity ratings were dipping, inflation had emerged as the most serious concern, and polls indicated a close contest even in safe seats. And they prepared for a bleak future, since an outright defeat in both chambers would effectively cripple the Biden presidency, leave Democratic ranks demoralised, and ensure that the Republicans walked into 2024 with great confidence.
Two caveats are important. At the time of writing, the final results of elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate are still pending (and all outcomes are still mathematically possible). Both parties have done well in different states; so, to read a uniform voter signal would be an exercise in imposing a coherence to the mandate that does not exist.
But the big picture of the 2022 US midterms is that the expected red wave has not materialised. The Democrats have not just been able to hold on to their base and safe seats, but in an adverse political economy climate, performed above their own expectations. The Republicans are still expected to win the House, but even if they do so, their majority will be narrow. The Senate remains too close to call:
The Democrats have won what was a Republican seat in Pennsylvania while holding on to seats that the Republicans were eyeing so far. And the party’s governors, who were under increasing electoral pressure even in states such as New York, a traditionally blue corner, have returned to office. So, what happened? The first thing to understand about American politics is that while it is deeply divided, it is divided into two almost equally powerful blocs. Take the recent elections. In 2016, Donald Trump won the majority in the electoral college, but the Democrats won a majority of the popular vote. In 2020, Joe Biden won both a majority of the electoral college and popular vote, but Trump was close behind winning over 74 million votes, almost 47% of the electorate. In the Congress, the Democrats won the House but had a slim majority with 222 seats to 213 won by the Republicans, while the Senate was divided 50:50.
So, while there has been an extreme Right-wing surge in recent years in American politics, it is not unchallenged and there is an equally robust liberal, democratic and progressive response. Unlike India, there is no national political hegemon in America. A majority of the voters are already locked into their partisan silos — and these silos are almost equal in weight. What every election then boils down to then are the swing voters, the swing constituencies, and what, at any point, is the most salient concern for these voters and regions.
What the Democrats needed to do was to secure their base and win over the swing voters, or at least ensure that this constituency did not shift wholly or substantially towards the Republicans. Three factors helped.
The first was the attack on abortion rights. A CNN exit poll, based on interviews of over 18,000 voters, showed that 27% of the voters rated abortion as the single most important issue in their voting calculus. The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn abortion protections embedded in the Roe v Wade verdict galvanised the Democratic base earlier this summer. There was acute anxiety as states began imposing restrictions. And there was fear that the Republicans were coming next for other personal freedoms.
While more data is needed, it can be safely said that abortion did lead to a higher turnout of Democratic voters, especially women and the young, and played a role in winning over nonparty moderate independents.
Two, the Democrats had a story to tell. It may not have been a convincing enough story for an outright win, but the story was enough to prevent a rout. It went something like this: We took over during the pandemic and today, there is a return to relative normalcy. Yes, inflation is a concern, but this is also do to with global factors and we are doing our best to reduce gas prices. Job creation is at record levels. We have passed a raft of domestic policies which benefited voters directly — cash transfers and child tax credits, infrastructure investments, a climate legislation, measures to control gun violence, student loan relief, boost to domestic manufacturing and lower costs for prescription drugs. American leadership in global affairs is back, as evidenced in the wide international coalition backing Ukraine. And democracy is under threat due to MAGA Republicans, a label for the extreme Right to distinguish them from regular conservatives. It was not a flawless story, but it worked to protect the base. It helped that the Republicans did not have a coherent policy platform to address the issues they flagged, including the economy.
And finally, the biggest gift for the Democrats was Donald Trump and his cohort of candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 polls. Republicans put far-Right candidates on the ballot, but the Democrats saw in this an opportunity, calculating that it would be easier to take them on in the general elections than moderate conservatives. Indeed, Senate minority leader and a pillar of the Republican establishment Mitch McConell spoke about “candidate quality” as a factor weakening his party’s prospects. And this was visible. Trump backed Mehmet Oz for senator and Doug Mastriano for governor in Pennsylvania; both lost. Trump backed Herschel Walker for the Senate in Georgia; and while the results aren’t out yet, Walker isn’t sweeping. Trump-backed candidates in Arizona are struggling. And those who won, such as JD Vance in Ohio, had their own profiles. Make no mistake. Trumpism is alive, but the appetite for Trump and Trump-like candidates nationally appears diminished.
2022 has shown yet again that America is deeply divided. But it was precisely this deep division, and a commitment to democratic norms and freedom among a large section of the voters, that ensured that Red did not completely overwhelm Blue.