Can Kasich, Rubio survive Trump storm?

Five key states, including Florida, hold primaries for both parties

WASHINGTON: Will it be Marco Rubio or John Kasich? Which of them will stop Donald Trump, beating him in the primaries Tuesday? Or will the frontrunner vanquish them both and become unstoppable?

The Democrats, holding their nominating contests simultaneously, are likely to find out how much longer Bernie Sanders’s renegade campaign is going to deny Hillary Clinton. Five key states — Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina — are holding primaries for both parties on Tuesday, but it’s the Republican race that’s attracting more attention.

Trump is leading polls in Florida, North Carolina and Illinois, with John Kasich ahead in Ohio; Missouri has no recent polls. And if the polls hold, Trump could become unstoppable.

He leads the current count of delegates — needed for the show of strength at the party convention in July to pick a nominee — 460 to Cruz’s 370 and Rubio’s 163.

All five Republican primaries on Tuesday follow the winner-takesall format, and are crucial for that reason too — with the potential to bolster a campaign with just one win or two, or wreck it.

Allan Lichtman, a professor at DC’s America University and a political commentator, said this about the Tuesday primaries: “The most likely outcome is Donald Trump will pad his delegate lead going into the next round of primaries, that Rubio will be out of the running, Kasich will either be out of the running if he loses Ohio or dangling on life support, since he really doesn’t have much beyond Ohio.

“Ohio would be his only win, and that would essentially leave the Republican contest down to a battle between Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, with Trump having a big advantage.”

Rubio is the party establishment’s favourite for taking on Trump, but he is not looking in good shape in his home state Florida, where he trails the frontrunner 24.4% to 43%.