IMD says monsoon to be ‘near-normal’ this time

NEWDELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted “near normal” southwest monsoon rainfall this year, even as it downplayed the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon.

The prediction is likely to bring cheer to the agricultural and rural economy, parts of which are reeling under the impact of an agrarian crisis, although this has more to do with low prices for agricultural produce than anything else.

Monsoon rainfall between June and September is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) received during the monsoon months in the 1951-2000 period.

M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said on Monday: “We are expecting near normal monsoon and a good distribution of rain across the country. The kharif crops will not be affected. Farmers will be happy. It’s good news for farmers on an auspicious day when many states are celebrating their new year.”

Kharif crops are monsoon crops. IMD’S forecast probability showed that there is a moderate chance of a “below normal” monsoon. The probability for “deficient” monsoon is 17%, for “below normal”, 32%, for “near normal”, 39%, and for “above normal” 10%.

IMD uses two models to make the monsoon forecast—statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) and the coupled ocean-atmosphere global Climate Forecasting System (CFS).

The SEFS model has predicted 96% of LPA while the CFS model has predicted 94% of LPA which falls under the below normal category.

Officials also said they don’t expect any adverse effects from El Nino, a weather phenomenon characterized by warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific ocean. El Nino years usually mean a weak monsoon and more episodes of heat waves in India.

The forecast said: “At present, weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts indicate such conditions are likely to persist during the monsoon season but with reduced intensity in the later part of monsoon.” Experts said a moderate El Nino is persisting which may not weaken before July.

“In June we may see some effects of El Nino, the monsoon may be sluggish in the initial phases but we expect good rains after that,” added Rajeevan.