‘Early’ monsoon may now be ‘most delayed’

NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday announced, in its latest forecast, that the monsoon is unlikely to advance in the remaining parts of north-west India, including Delhi, till at least July 7, which will make the 2021 monsoon’s arrival in the national capital as delayed as in 2012 and the most delayed since 2006, according to the weather office’s records.

If the prediction holds, that is. What make the circumstances particularly odd is that the monsoon was racing through the country in early June, and the Met predicted last month it may hit Delhi by June 15, the earliest in the period for which data is available, before it suddenly slowed down and appeared to hit a “break” phase.

In 2012, the southwest monsoon arrived in the Capital on July 7, a full 10 days after its usual arrival date of June 27. The latest it has arrived in the past 17 years for which IMD has data is on July 9 in 2006. In 2019, 2010, 2005 and 2004, it made an official entry into Delhi on July 5.

Meanwhile, Delhi, which has broken a weather record every month starting last August, broke one on the very first day of July, with the Safdarjung observatory recording a maximum temperature of 43.1 degrees Celsius, the highest July temperature since 2012 (July 2 that year recorded a maximum temperature of 43.5°C).

Both 2006 and 2012 saw the same kind of heatwaves the Capital is currently experiencing.

On Thursday, the maximum temperature was 43.1°C, six degrees above normal, marking the third straight heatwave day. In 2006, there were nine such days and in 2012, seven.

By IMD’S definition, it is a heatwave in the plains when the maximum temperature crosses 40°C, and when the day temperature exceeds the region’s normal maximum temperature by 4.5°C. A severe heatwave is declared when there is a departure of 6.5°C or above from normal temperatures.