Punjab’s date with poll suitors on V-day
State to vote on Feb 14 along with Uttarakhand, Goa; 7-phase polling in Uttar Pradesh begins on Feb 10, results on March 10
NEW DELHI: A little over a fifth of India’s population will vote between February 10 and March 7 in assembly elections in five states, including the most populous and politically significant Uttar Pradesh, the Election Commission of India announced on Saturday.
The elections will take place under the shadow of the third wave of the coronavirus disease — just like the previous set of assembly elections last year happened under the shadow of the second — and both the election watchdog and political parties have signalled that they have learnt from that experience.
The commission has planned sweeping measures to safeguard the polling process, including increasing booths, sanitising voting stations, fully vaccinating all officials (including with booster shots), extending voting hours, and banning all rallies and political processions till January 15 (when this will be reviewed). Given the rising trajectory of the disease, it is likely the ban could last longer.
“There is no need to panic, but only be cautious. Ultimately it is the voter that has to be safe,” said chief election commissioner (CEC) Sushil Chandra. Any Covid violations will be dealt with by state administrations and disaster management authorities, he added. The results will be announced on March 10.
The election in Uttar Pradesh, definitely the most significant and complicated of the five, will be held in seven phases between February 10 and March 7, with identity politics (religion and caste) likely to be the deciding factor. The Punjab election will be held in a single phase on February 14, with the farm protests, anti-incumbency and the internal dynamics of the ruling Congress being the key issues.
The Uttarakhand polls will be held in one phase, also on February 14, with anti-incumbency likely outweighing all other factors. The Goa election will be held in one phase on February 14, and is perhaps the most open of the lot, with 40 of the 23 legislators elected in the last round shifting allegiances.
The Manipur polls will be held in two phases on February 27 and March 3, with anti-incumbency and the ruling BJP’S internal dynamics being the issues to watch.
Coming as they do just past the halfway mark of the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance’s second term in office at the Centre, the results of these elections will pretty much decide how politics will play out over the next two years in the run-up to the 2024 national election.
BJP president JP Nadda said the party will return to power with an overwhelming majority. “In the forthcoming assembly elections, Bharatiya Janata Party will again receive the blessings of people. BJP will return to power with an overwhelming majority and take works of service and development to new heights,” Nadda said in a tweet.
For the BJP, the results will indicate whether the party needs to make any changes in its approach in future elections; for the Congress, the elections are a fight for relevance; for a regional party such as the Samajwadi Party, they are a test of its support base; and for opposition parties such as the Aam Aadmi Party and the Trinamool Congress, the contest will show whether there is anything to their national plans apart from aspirations.
The next general election is still a little over two years away, but the results of these five state elections can provide some clues on the shape and structure of the opposition the BJP will face in it.
In UP, analysts expect the primary contest to be between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party, with neither the Congress nor the Bahujan Samaj Party expected to do very well.
A win will strengthen and consolidate chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s standing and stature within the BJP, and reassure the party that its appeal remains strong in a state which sends the most MPS to the Lok Sabha.