BJP winning Guj, close contest in HP: Exit polls

NEW DELHI: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on course to securing a seventh straight assembly election victory in Gujarat and possibly even register its biggest victory, a clutch of exit polls predicted on Monday, even as the elections in Himachal Pradesh appeared poised on knife’s edge with no clear victor emerging.

Two-phase assembly elections in Gujarat ended on Monday. Himachal Pradesh voted on November 12. The votes for both states will be counted on Thursday.

In Gujarat, the BJP was seen comfortably crossing the halfway mark of 92 by all exit polls, a major improvement from its performance five years ago when the Congress posted its best results in a generation. Five surveys predicted that the party would achieve a record-breaking victory in the state, at least in terms of seats won, by bettering its 2002 tally of 127. All surveys placed the Congress a distant second and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) third in a state that saw its traditionally two-party polity upended with the entry of the AAP.

In Himachal Pradesh, on the other hand, the surveys threw up mixed results. One prominent survey, India Today-axis Myindia, projected the Congress as marginally ahead of the BJP in the hill state while another — News 24-Today’s Chanakya — predicted a photo-finish. Four other surveys put the BJP ahead of the Congress but said the difference between the two parties will be slim. If the BJP retains power in Himachal, it will break the state’s political tradition of voting out the incumbent, after having achieved an identical feat in neighbouring Uttarakhand last year. For the Congress, which has gone without winning an election on its own in nearly three years, winning Himachal Pradesh is important.

To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially in states with diverse populations, castes and communities. But they are useful in identifying trends.

“Many exit polls are showing that the BJP is forming government again in Himachal while some others are predicting a neck-to-neck fight in a few segments.

We should wait till December 8 for the final outcome. According to our analysis, there is a very good possibility of the BJP forming the government with a comfortable majority,” outgoing Himachal chief minister Jai Ram Thakur said.

In Gujarat, home minister Harsh Sanghvi said, “The BJP and the people of Gujarat have decided to create history. Our relationship has remained strong for 27 years and will only get stronger in the coming days. This will not be a victory for power but to reaffirm our relationship with the people of Gujarat.”

Senior Congress leader and former Uttarakhand CM Harish Rawat was silent on his party’s prospects in Himachal but exuded confidence of the Congress winning about 40 seats in Gujarat saying that the people of the state have voted in favour of the Congress.

“Looking at the general public mood, I personally feel the voters in Gujarat are in favour of the Congress. We did change our tactic while campaigning for the polls. I can say that we are winning about 40 seats,” said Rawat.

This round of assembly elections is important because they mark the beginning of an almost continuous poll season next year – assembly elections in eight states are scheduled in 2023 – leading to the general election in 2024.