Will impact Cong, BJP fortunes
NEW DELHI: Rita Bahuguna Joshi’s decision to switch over to the BJP ahead of the Uttar Pradesh elections will make little difference to the Congress’ electoral fortunes nor to those of her new party.
Her exit is more in terms of perception – a senior leader deserting the party in the home state of Nehru-Gandhi family.
Her departure comes at a time when the Congress has managed to create some buzz around its campaign, with party vice-president Rahul Gandhi spending nearly a month in the bellwether state, where the party was ousted from power in 1989.
As the Uttar Pradesh Congress chief from 2007 to 2012, Joshi failed to arrest the party’s decline that started with the emergence of the MandalMandir politics in late 1980s.
When Joshi, a Brahmin, took over from Salman Khurshid in 2007 the party had hoped for consolidation of upper caste votes but that didn’t happen.
In the 2012 assembly elections fought under Joshi, the Congress managed only 28 of the 403 seats. The dismal show came despite Gandhi’s highvoltage campaign during which he addressed 211 public meetings in 48 days.
Congress leaders say the party recovered some of the lost ground in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections but it was due to Gandhi’s efforts and not Joshi’s. The 2014 national elections were again a disaster.
Joshi felt increasingly sidelined after Nirmal Khatri replaced her as state chief in 2012. The party’s decision to bring Sheila Dikshit from Delhi and name her the chief minister candidate didn’t go down well with her. She made her displeasure known by skipping meetings called to discuss poll strategy.
Her exit from the Congress hardly comes as a surprise. She simply followed her brother Vijay Bahugana, who dumped the Congress for the BJP in the neighbouring Uttarakhand in May. LUCKNOW: What an irony! The incessant feud in the Yadav family is jeopardising the Samajwadi Party just when it turns 25 years old.
Speculation is rife about a possible split in the party formed on Ram Manohar Lohia’s principle that dissuaded dynastic politics. Ironically, the founder president of the party, who is also the family patriarch, Mulayam Singh Yadav is so deeply caught in the family mess that he is willing to sacrifice the party that he raised with his sweat and blood since October 1992. So much so that a party that was seen till the other day as one of the front runners in 2017 assembly polls is now gasping to stay in the race. The pertinent question is: Will Akhilesh split the party founded by his father. If yes, when? Already many names and party symbols are in discussion, the most popular being Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party with motorcycle as the party symbol. However, before taking the extreme step, he will first try to reason out with his father, who will have to wade through family wrangles to support him. While Mulayam is stuck on realpolitik — putting together caste and muscle power in different regions — Akhilesh wants to sail on the single slogan of development. Akhilesh also wants a major say in ticket distribution.
Perhaps, it was easier for Mulayam to make him chief minister than hand him over the party legacy, to which his younger brother Shivpal has also staked claim. In support, Shivpal has Amar Singh and some members of Mulayam’s second family. However, Akhilesh is not in a hurry to be on his own. He will assess the public mood during his Vikas to Vijay yatra starting from November 3.
Political experts feel Akhilesh is a popular face in the state and he also has public sympathy since Mulayam started favouring his brother Shivpal. Though many seniors have preferred to remain out of the ongoing family dispute, Kiranmoy Nanda and Azam Khan have already supported him as CM candidate. Azam as Ram Gopal Yadav, the party’s national general secretary, have even described Akhilesh as the best CM in the country.
While the young turks are ready to take the risky plunge, seniors are wary. Reoti Raman Singh, one of the foundermembers of the party, agreed that Akhilesh should be the CM face and also have say in ticket distribution. “But he can’t win election merely on development slogan without the support of the organisation,” he said.
Singh has a point. Split in the party will vertically divide their precious vote bank of Yadavs and Muslims. Allahabad-based socialist leader Vinod Dubey is of the view that the young, cutting across caste lines, would support Akhilesh. If the party remained united, much of the damage caused by family dispute would be salvaged.
What are the options before Akhilesh in case he decides to split the party? First, he can lead the grand alliance of JD(U), Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Congress. No questions would be raised on his CM claim. This could also form the basis for a future national alliance.
Second , the BJP would also want to ally with his group in caseof ahungassembly.However, even though he has toned down his party’s pro-minority image, he would not have any truck with the BJP. His every speech starts with socialism and secularism.