An elusive hazard line can prove hazardous for India
The advance warning system will not only help prevent deaths but also save crores of rupees in property loss
India was to have a Hazard Line, which maps how far inland the risk of coastal hazards spreads, two years ago. The line is drawn by modelling the risk from flooding, coastal erosion and threats like sea level rise. It is everything India’s environmental regulation, too often, is not: it is farsighted, based on science, and it is precautionary.
In India 13 states and Union Territories (UTS) share a border with the sea, the problem is the sea does not respect these borders, rude intrusions like cyclones and wave surges often wreak havoc on inhabitants of the coast. Those at risk: more than 170 million people, or 14% of the country’s population, living in coastal areas.
In the second iteration of the coastal regulation rules notified in 2011, in a fit of foresightedness, the government of India for the first time talked about having a Hazard Line.
Under the current rules, 500 metres from the high tide line towards the landward side is the zone where the government can regulate all sorts of activities from construction to mining in the interest of protecting the coastal environment. Under a World Bank-funded project launched in 2010 to map the Hazard Line with the help of the Survey of India, the original deadline was 2015, now it is 2017. Climate change has added to the risk of living in coastal areas. This year the hurricane season in the Northern Atlantic unleashed powerful hurricanes — called cyclones in India — which pummelled the Caribbean.
India has seen its share of cyclones, but warming oceans combined with sea level rise can fuel even more powerful storms. The country has managed to reign in casualties from cyclones by improving its early warning systems. Indian scientists love to boast that the ability to issue advance warnings has helped save thousands of lives. The Hazard Line in some ways is a very advance warning system that will not only help prevent deaths but also save crores of rupees in property loss.
The focus of damage from natural disasters in India is mostly focused on lives lost, the damage to property is not even a consideration, but this cannot be the guiding principle going forward. In recent months, there is talk of new coastal regulation rules replacing the 2011 rules. A draft policy that was obtained by the Centre for Policy Research is silent on the Hazard Line. An official at the National Coastal Zone Management Authority said that the issue with the Hazard Line was that it was probabilistic, a purely scientific entity that in his view should not be the basis of regulation. Even if the policy were to ignore it, an official Hazard Line would be incorporated into calculations of risk to propert. Coastal populations need something equivalent of earthquake zone mapping for inlanders. Time and tide wait for no Hazard Lines.