China’s crucial party congress begins today

BEIJING: Wide-ranging changes in the Communist Party of China’s leadership and a renewed thrust on economic development are expected when more than 2,200 top party members gather for a key once-in-five years meeting in Beijing on Wednesday.

The congress will go on till October 24, according to Tuo Zhen, the spokesperson for the 19th National Congress.

President Xi Jinping is expected to consolidate his powers but new leaders will be inducted in CPC’S elite bodies, including the central committee, politburo and the politburo standing committee — the most powerful decision-making group in the CPC.

Officers are also expected to be replaced in the Central Military Commission, which controls the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Xi, who will present a work report to the congress on his five years in office, is expected to solidify his hold in the party and the government — he is already the CPC general secretary and the CMC chairperson, besides heading the group on the economy and national security.

Though the event will be closely tracked, procedures remain shrouded in secrecy.

China watchers will look for changes in policies and whether the next generation of leaders — expected to take over after Xi steps down in 2022 — would be unveiled at the end of the Congress. Whether Xi will indicate a successor remains under sharp focus.

It is widely believed that intense backroom negotiations were carried out to fill up the posts that will become vacant – either because incumbents have retired or were punished because of Xi’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign.

“I expect the focus for next term/leadership will be ‘the realisation of the first 100 years’ (of the CPC) with priority on economic development and livelihood improvement. This is because of the big losses in the anti-corruption campaign in last five years and with emerging economy problems,” said Zhang Lifan, a Beijing-based political commentator and historian.

Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese Studies and director of the Lau China Institute at King's College, London, spoke to HT about the expected changes. “Among the changes expected are personnel changes which will give some idea of whether Xi will be an increasingly autocratic leader or whether promotion is more about experience and therefore serving the mission of making a strong, sustainable one-party system,” he said.

The other change will be in policy. “Xi has been very successful in securing the control of the CPC via the leading small groups, the inspection and discipline commission and personnel departments. The anti-corruption campaign has affected broad swathes of the CPC membership and the factional balance is now tilted unequivocally in Xi’s favour,” said Jonathan Sullivan, director China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham.

It is all but given that Xi will emerge a stronger leader at the end of the 19th Congress.