Why Indians should resist urge to play 2nd spinner
SYDNEY: The Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) is Australia’s second oldest and second most used Test venue behind the Melbourne Cricket Ground. In the 21st century the SCG is something of a fortress for Australia. They have won 16 of their 21 Tests at the venue since 2000 and have only lost twice — their winloss ratio of 8.00 in this time is their best at any home venue. Historically, the SCG has not proven to be a happy hunting ground for India who have won just one of their eleven Tests at the venue and that was in 1978.
The SCG is not a multi-sport venue and therefore has conventional boundary dimensions. The pitch itself provides a fair amount of assistance to spinners relative to other venues in Australia, with an average spin degree of 3.86° second only to the Adelaide Oval. However, this has led to the misconception that the SCG is a good venue for spin bowlers; it isn’t. In the 21st century, spinners average 43.67 compared to 36.53 for quicks who don’t get much help in way of lateral movement but find the pace and bounce more to their liking.
The relatively high averages for quicks and spinners show the SCG to be a good venue for batting. Indeed, in the 21st century, the batting average at the SCG of 38.65 is the highest of any venue in Australia. Typically, batting averages get lower innings after innings but that the fourth innings average at the venue of
30.69 is the second highest in Australia is indicative that the pitch remains good for batting throughout. In the fourth innings the spinners do begin to come more into the match — their average of 32.70 in the fourth innings since 2000 is the second lowest of any venue
in Australia
— but remains higher than the pace average of 27.03.
Australia are set to name an unchanged bowling attack from the third Test but India will make at least one change with Ishant Sharma ruled out. History suggests India should avoid the temptation to pick a second spinner. Although the pitch takes turn relative to other Australian venues, spinners have had little success here. India have three spinners in their squad but also have three quicks and don’t need to play more than the one spinner.
Given the slight dip in batting averages innings on innings, you would expect teams who bat first to have the better record. Since 2000 however, teams who field first have won 48% of their matches compared to just 38% for teams who bat first. This figure is probably slightly skewed by the fact that Australia have fielded first more often than they have batted first and in the mid 2000s in particular they were so strong that it often didn’t matter what they did — they would still emerge victorious. Neither Australia nor India like to field first and although Australia are chasing a win to level the series, it would be a surprise if either team chose to field first.