Vote transfer big challenge for opposition alliance in Bihar

PATNA/PATLIPUTRA/ARRAH: As curtains come down on the sevenphase Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, a question mark remains on the transfer of votes among the constituents of the six-party grand alliance or the mahagathbandhan.

The coalition of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), Hindustan Awam Morcha-secular (HAM-S), Vikassheel Insan Party (VIP) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-leninist) may appear strong in terms of caste calculations but the key to their success would be their capacity to transfer votes.

While the RJD has considerable influence over Yadavs and Muslims, the RLSP of Upendra Kushwaha boasts of the support of Koeris, which come under OBC category. Similarly, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM-S has sway over Musahars (Scheduled Caste) while the VIP of Mukesh Sahni alias ‘Son of Mallah’ counts the Nishad (fisherfolk and boatmen) OBC community as its core support base.

The Congress that claims to represent all sections of the society has been reduced to the political margins and piggybacks on other caste parties.

Congress leader Kishore Kumar Jha noted that Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits were once the traditional vote banks of his party but shifted their allegiance with the emergence of Mandal-kamandal (Mandal refers to caste politics while Kamandal to the Ram temple movement) politics in the late 1980s.

As per the 2011 Census, the Yadavs constitute 14.4% of Bihar’s 100-million population, Muslims 16.9%, and Dalits 16%. Musahars (mahadalits) account for 2.8% of the Dalit population while Koeris form 6.4% and Nishads 14% of the 51% OBC chunk of the population.

If votes do not get transferred to the constituents of the mahagathbandhan, the advantage will be with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

While the BJP and the JD (U) are contesting 17 seats each, the LJP has fielded candidates for six.

Political observers say while mathematics is on the side of the grand alliance, cohesion, and chemistry is missing.

Shaibal Gupta, a founder member-secretary of Asian Development Research Institute in Patna, claimed the grand alliance was not working on the ground in view of “poor” ticket distribution and the lack of chemistry between the alliance partners.