Covid-19: How it will change the world

international, but national.

And once they have defeated Covid-19 – we have to believe they will – it is certain that they will take measures they think will ensure that they never find themselves in the situation in which they currently find themselves.

Unfortunately, the chances are that this response will not be about vaccine development or early warning systems for pandemics.

What will it be about then?

For one, countries will start hoarding strategic resources at a national level. It could be oil; it could be lithium; or it could be medical equipment and drugs. Expect every country in the world to start building reserves of these, and also encouraging (and perhaps mandating) their companies to start manufacturing these – locally.

Two, borders have become harder, and while that’s likelytochangeafterthecrisis,theyarenotgoingtogo back to where they were before. Indeed, open borders ineuropearebeingcitedbysomeexpertsasonereason why Covid-19 has ravaged the continent. Even before thevirusemerged,manycountrieshadstartedclampingdownonimmigrants,whomtheysawasadrainon their resources. Now, they will also see them as possible carriers of infections such as Covid-19. Expect it to be tougher to travel; and even tougher to emigrate.

Three,therewillbeanewworldorderthatallcountries will try to fit into. Any country that manages to come out of Covid-19 relatively unscathed, or quickly, will find itself at the high table of such an order. It’s too early to predict which will, though. Sure, China has had zero cases of local infections for several days running, but will there be a second wave with businesses reopeningandtravelrestrictionseasing?theuslooks like it is at risk of being overrun by the virus, but can it pull off a miracle? And what of India?

Four, it is likely that countries (at least some of them) will continue monitoring the health and movement of their citizens – something many of them are doing now. What form this will take is not clear, but there’salreadysometalkthatcovid-19hasaccelerated the emergence of the surveillance state. They may be overstating the case, but one never knows.