In poll-bound Bihar, it is advantage Nitish Kumar

Despite anti-incumbency, the ruling alliance has a strong CM face, and a formidable social coalition

In 1960, history was created when a littleknown senator from Massachusetts, John F Kennedy overshadowed Richard Nixon, then president DD Eisenhower’s vice-president, in the first televised debate in the United States (US). Television, since then, emerged as a powerful medium in election campaigns worldwide.

In the Bihar assembly elections, if they are held as scheduled towards the end of the year, a new form of campaigning, the virtual campaign, will take centre stage. If successful, it will change the course of elections in India. Home minister Amit Shah addressed a virtual rally on June 7. He, according to reports, spoke to half-a-million people in Bihar. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi too, has held virtual interactions with his party’s leaders, albeit on a limited scale. While the Janata Dal (United), led by chief minister Nitish Kumar, too planned a virtual rally on August 7, it was postponed.

Such virtual campaigns are possible because a huge constituency of digital users has been created. Over 500 million people in India are estimated to be connected, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently suggesting that a majority of them are in rural areas. The fact that Bihar is predominantly rural adds to its uniqueness. Further, Internet use is more gender-balanced in India, with a substantial segment of women users. This represents a rupture. In the Lalu Prasad era, when Sharad Pawar visited Patna, he was shocked to know that there were only 100 Internet connections in Patna, whereas in his parliamentary constituency, Baramati, there were 12,000 connections. But now, digital platforms have emerged as vehicles for the democratisation of information dissemination. Bihar will be the epicentre of how this will manifest itself in electoral politics in a post-covid-19 India.

But what about the substance of the electoral competition? It appears that Kumar has a tough challenge ahead. His third term, unlike the first two, has not been covered in glory. The administration’s weaknesses have got exposed in handling the Covid-19 situation. There is a degree of public anger.

However, he also has clear advantages. Kumar is still a major political brand in the state, equated with the improvements of his earlier terms. Even though his partnership with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not brought about benefits demanded by the JD(U), such as a special category status for Bihar or central university status for Patna University, the alliance is beneficial for both parties.

It has ensured a successful “coalition of extremes” from upper castes to Dalits. If Jitan Ram Manjhi joins the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the social coalition will become even more formidable. Kumar has also cultivated the women constituency by providing them 35% reservation in panchayati raj institutions and extending reservations for them in the police and government jobs. He has cultivated the more extreme segments of backward communities over the last 15 years and is seen as their leader. The inward migration in the wake of Covid-19 was mishandled initially, but the scheme of providing ~4,000 per migrant and economically marginal persons could work out well.

If the present “coalition of extremes” holds strong, the election outcome a foregone conclusion. The BJP’S campaign, notes of dissent by Lok Janshakti Party’s Chirag Paswan or the challenge by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’S Tejashwi Yadav are designed to fill the vacuum after the Kumar era in Bihar politics, ie, once his next, and by all assessments, final stint ends in 2025.

Bihar is the only state in the Hindi heartland where the BJP has not reached its plateau. It has preferred an alliance despite Modi’s popularity. After successful social engineering at the grassroots, it is now evoking regional sub-nationalism. Modi praised the valour of the Biharis and Bihar Regiment, and their sacrifice during the Indochina clashes. While extending the time limit of PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojna , Modi specifically mentioned on June 30 that it will continue up to the Chhath festival in November. Chhath is the only sub-national festival in Bihar, where all castes and classes participate without any social divide. The BJP is also trying to woo young people — all its district presidents in Bihar are in the age group of 40 to 45.

But it is not as much the strengths of the ruling alliance as the weaknesses of the Opposition that explain the current moment. Even though there is substantial anti-incumbency, perhaps natural after 15 years of rule, the Opposition is in disarray.

Tejashwi Yadav is yet to fill Lalu Prasad’s shoes. Hegemony over any caste — Yadavs in the case of the RJD — doesn’t last without formal political power. RJD has been out of power now for 15 years. And a social movement to sustain the support of the entire caste group is absent. The Congress and communist parties are in a state of drift. Upendra Kushwaha or Mukesh Sahni’s social strength does not match the political attention they draw.

Chirag Paswan is appealing to a broader provincial identity with the slogan of “Bihar First and Bihari First” to project himself as a pan-bihar leader but it is unlikely to yield immediate returns. Yashwant Sinha’s new front with the “Badlo Bihar” slogan lacks authenticity. Even though he was principal secretary to former chief minister Karpoori Thakur, he has not been associated with the social justice movement in Bihar and is instead seen as having proactively ensured the division of Bihar. His aides are past their political prime.

Given this context — where the ruling coalition has a strong CM face and social arithmetic on its side and the Opposition is adrift, leaderless, and without a substantial caste coalition — Bihar is set to see the return of the incumbent if elections happen.