IMD predicts warmer winter for northern India this season
BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MANY PARTS OF PENINSULAR INDIA AND SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIA
DURING DECEMBER-FEBRUARY
NEW DELHI: This year may see a warm winter in northwest and northeast India, but many parts of peninsular India will see a relatively colder winter, the Indian weather office has said.
Above normal maximum and minimum temperatures are expected over many parts of northwest India and most parts of northeast India during this winter season (December 2022 to February 2023), the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday. This means the frequency of days with maximum and minimum temperatures about 2 to 4 degree C above normal will be higher during the next 3 months.
Below normal minimum temperatures are likely over many parts of peninsular India and some parts of central India and isolated parts of northwest India, but, overall normal to above normal minimum temperatures are most likely over many parts of northwest India (Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, parts of Rajasthan) and most parts northeast India. And above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the northwest India, east, northeast India and many parts of Central India.
The impact of above normal temperatures over the rabi (winter) crop, particularly wheat, depends on the stage of wheat crop, said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD. “The combination of the dynamic behaviour of weather and dynamic stages of vegetation in wheat crop will determine the impact.”
A warmer than normal spring affected wheat output across India’s northern plains in 2022.
Interestingly, global models consulted by IMD are showing a warmer than average winter for the northern parts of the country despite La Nina conditions.
“La Nina is only one of the factors, not the only factor which determines temperatures. In November also, La Nina was there. You expect more cyclonic disturbances during La Nina period but there was only one depression. Madden–julian oscillation was active which subdued cyclonic activity,” explained Mohapatra.
While it is difficult to ascertain the complex interplay of factors, Mohapatra said the warmer winter may be due to two reasons. “We can speculate that western disturbance activity may be subdued leading to less cloudiness and both above normal day and night temperatures. There may be higher penetration of easterly winds which may cause temperatures to rise but not bring enough moisture to cause rains,” he added.