BJP prepares to bring TDP, AGP into NDA
POLL PLAN Alliances will be discussed at the BJP parliamentary board meeting on Feb 27; TDP may be the first to join Bihar CM links survival of JD(U) government with Lok Sabha election results
NEW DELHI: The Bharatiya Janata Party’s balancing act on Telangana-Seemandhra and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s growing panIndian support, particularly in the North-East, have forced the party to rethink reviving an electoral alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and move fast on sealing a mutually beneficial deal with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).
While the top BJP leadership is all for including both the AGP and TDP in the expanded National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the Lok Sabha elections, the sangh parivar wants the Assam party to come out openly against the All India United Democratic Front of Badruddin Ajmal before it ties up with the BJP because it does not want its caste Hindu votes to be divided.
Nagpur (RSS headquarters) sent a senior leader to Seemandhra over the weekend to prepare the cadre for an alliance with the TDP, with top BJP leaders staying in touch with Chandrababu Naidu, TDP chief.
The alliances will be discussed in the BJP parliamentary board meeting on February 27 and the TDP will be the first one to come to the NDA fold.
A top BJP strategist told Hindustan Times on anonymity the three parties stood to gain from the alliances, which would enable the NDA to reach the magical figure of 272 in the Lok Sabha elections.
“The BJP, by extracting an economic package for Seemandhra and rooting for the creation of Telangana, is getting pro-Modi support in the former as well in the latter. Our surveys show the BJP has some 20% vote share in Telangana and the TDP has about 14%. With the TDP joining hands, the NDA will be able to corner a large number of seats in the newly created state. In Seemandhra, we expect support for Modi as PM to be around 10% but with the TDP’s big support, the NDA can give the YSR Congress a run for its money,” the senior BJP leader said.
The TDP has six Lok Sabha MPs in undivided Andhra Pradesh. The party has about 92 MLAs while the BJP has two.
In Assam, BJP leaders such as Narendra Modi, Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley and Amit Shah have pitched in for the alliance with the AGP. “Our surveys have shown that the BJP is now neck and neck with the Congress … If we tie up with the Asom Gana Parishad , with its traditional vote share of 14-15%, the National Democratic Alliance is in the reckoning for some nine of the 14 seats in the state,” a BJP leader said.
A TOP BJP STRATEGIST TOLD HT THE 3 PARTIES WOULD GAIN FROM THE ALLIANCES AND ENABLE THE NDA TO REACH THE FIGURE OF 272 IN LOK SABHA ELECTIONS
PATNA: “This is a life and death election,” Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar roared at a rally in Patna last week. A mistake, he claimed, could lead to the train being derailed. “If we are not strong in Delhi, there will be conspiracies to undermine the Bihar government. If you give us power, then Delhi will be forced to give us special status.”
When faced with a possibly adverse electoral verdict, politicians usually underplay the importance of the polls. Two days before results for five state assemblies were declared, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, speaking at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit, said the party is going into the Lok Sabha polls with a sense of confidence “whatever be the results of the current round of assembly elections”.
But Kumar has adopted a diametrically opposite strategy, establishing the centrality of the Lok Sabha elections even though he faces a tough challenge.
Kumar is aware that a perception has gained ground in Bihar that he has limited stakes in the Lok Sabha polls. As Madhubani shop-owner Arun Kumar Bhandari, who belongs to Kumar’s core base of Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), told HT, “Nitish Kumar is a good CM, but he won’t become PM. So why waste a vote on him?” (Current party position) JD(U)
CONG LJP Others
LOK SABHA-ASSEMBLY POLLS CORRELATED?
1999 Lok Sabha polls: their fortunes dwindled JD(U)-BJP alliance won 42 soon after. out of 54 seats (undivided Feb 2005 assembly polls: Bihar). RJD won 75 seats. NDA 2000 Lok Sabha polls: won 92 of the 243 seats. JD(U), BJP failed to arrive Nov 2005 assembly polls: at a seat-sharing arrangement. NDA won 143 while RJD RJD won 124 out of was down to 54 seats
243 seats. NDA partners together got 122. 2009 Lok Sabha polls: NDA
won 32 out of 40 seats 2004 Lok Sabha polls: RJDCongress while RJD got 4. alliance won 21 out of the 40 seats. But 2010 assembly polls: NDA
got 2/3rd majority.
To wean away such voters who prefer his government in Bihar but see no reason to vote for the JD(U) at the centre, and establish the linkage between local and national, Kumar has decided to push this new campaign message. “If we do badly in the Lok Sabha, the state government will collapse. People don’t want that, and we want to play into that fear. There is a lot BJP RJD
of goodwill for Nitish’s work,” said a top JD(U) leader.
The JD(U) doesn’t have to work hard to project its vulnerability. After the break with the BJP last June, the government is walking on thin ice. In the legislative assembly of 243 seats, the JD(U) has 115. It won the support of 124 MLAs in the last vote of confidence, with the Congress’ four MLAs,