Why the UAE is on a mission to court India
Sunni forces in Yemen’s civil war accelerated this shift. But more fundamental was a sense that if secularised Islam was the UAE’s future, India made more sense than its western neighbour.
The India gambit also fits Abu Dhabi’s economic vision.
With the US effectively energy independent and China’s doubledigit growth years behind it, the fastest growing major market for oil and gas these past several months has been India. This has been noticed by Abu Dhabi, the only one of the Emirates with oil and gas wealth.
Abu Dhabi also has two other economic goals in mind. One is to develop capacities in technology sectors such as renewable energy and software, with the idea of diversifying from hydrocarbons. Again Indian corporations are obvious partners in such efforts. Pakistan stands nowhere.
The other goal is to evolve Dubai into a genuine global financial hub. “The Abu Dhabi royal family see the Dubai family as a bunch of buccaneers who allowed all sorts of riff-raff to settle down in Dubai,” explained one Western diplomat. The vision is to make Dubai more like Singapore. Again, India makes sense.
Finally, Abu Dhabi and many other Gulf states are concerned at the region’s lack of a geopolitical anchor. The US is seen as unpredictable and disinterested in the region. Thus, the UAE has sought to hedge its external relations with other countries as well. Crown prince Bin Zayed visited China in December 2015. But Beijing has limited strategic reach in the Persian Gulf.
India, with its ambitious naval plans in the Indian Ocean, is emerging as a major pillar of this hedging strategy. While New Delhi remains averse to the idea of projecting its power into the Gulf, Abu Dhabi wonders how long India will be able to stay out given its strategic interests and rising military power.