Probability of a limited war is low
to wage 4GW in Jammu and Kashmir. Given its military limitations, it is disadvantageous for it to initiate a war. Thus the onus is on India, either to accept status quo or to force compliance through a limited war. And this scenario - a limited war with a nuclear backdrop - worries the world most. Will a limited war be cost-effective and decisive enough to force compliance on Pakistan? That the Indian government including the present one has not exercised this option despite the 1,000 cuts, answers this question.
Can a major change in the strategic situation force the Indian government to initiate a limited war? The casus belli could be a 26/11 type of attack or the situation in Kashmir going cout of hand. Since terrorism is calibrated by the ISI it is unlikely to repeat 26/11 and despite the “intifada” the situation in J&K is militarily well under control. Can charged political and public emotions force the government’s hand? In my view the present political leadership while exploiting and manipulating public emotions, is smart enough not to fall prey to them.
Since the probability of a limited war is very low, let me paint a hypothetical scenario. The year is 2022. Indian economy has grown at 8-10 %. Major security reforms have been undertaken. Armed Forces have been restructured , and a clear technological military edge over Pakistan has been established. The situation in J&K is under control but Pakistan continues to bleed us with 1,000 cuts. International environment is in favour of “war on ‘terrorism’ “.
India’s political aim is to compel Pakistan to peace on own terms. Essentials of likely politico military strategy: the war will be initiated as a pre-emptive strategic offensive; maximum territory will be captured in PoK for permanent retention; a belt of 20 km relative to tactical objectives will be captured across the IB for post war negotiations; maximum damage will be caused to Pakistan’s war Air Force, Navy and mechanised forces; damage will be caused to Pakistan’s economic potential; all objectives will be achieved in 10 days, however, prolonged operations may be undertaken in PoK. Be prepared for use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons by the enemy.
Until the conditions for this hypothetical scenario are created it may be prudent to continue with “strategic restraint”.