Netanyahu’s diplomacy is finally paying off
Israel has managed to drive a wedge between Iran and Russia in Syria. This will secure its northern border
Since Iran and Russia reached an agreement in the summer of 2015 to coordinate a military campaign to save the regime of Syria’s dictator, that war has held together an unholy alliance of those three states. It worked. Bashar al-assad has withstood the uprising.
Now, as that war comes to a close, the Iranian-russian alliance that saved the Assad regime appears to be fraying. Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Assad that foreign military forces will exit Syria at the onset of a political process to end the war. This week, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said all foreign forces should leave the Daraa province, which borders Israel.
All of this is significant for a few reasons. Being forced to withdraw from Syria would be a major blow to Iran’s prestige at a moment when its economy is bracing for crippling sanctions following US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. The removal of Iran and its allied militias from Syria would stymie Tehran’s plans for a land bridge to southern Lebanon.
Preventing a permanent Iranian presence in Syria has been a top priority for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the last two years. In 2017, he pressed the Trump administration to commit to challenge Iranian forces in Syria after victory in the campaign against Islamic State. He was not successful in Washington, so he tried something different: He went to Moscow.
Israel has had a channel to Moscow since Russia first established its air presence in Syria in fall 2015. This channel though was primarily to warn Russia’s military when Israel launched airstrikes on convoys and shipments of arms to Hezbollah.
On Thursday Israeli defense minister Avigdor Lieberman flew to Moscow to meet with his Russian counterpart. Following meetings, Lieberman tweeted: “The state of Israel appreciates Russia’s understanding of our security concerns, particularly regarding the situation at our northern border.”
So far, that understanding has resulted in a new policy from Russia toward Israeli airstrikes in Syria. Russia has the ability to protect Iranian forces with its own air force and air defense systems in Syria, but it has opted not to use them to stop Israel.
Elliott Abrams, a deputy national security adviser in the George W Bush administration, told me that Netanyahu has been explaining to Putin “the threat to Israeli security posed by Iran’s presence in Syria.”
“We see there is a gap between Iranian and Russian interests, and Netanyahu has been explaining that,” Abrams said. “It seems to be coming to fruition now.”
It’s too soon to say whether Israel’s diplomacy with Russia will result in the removal of Iran and its allied militias from Syria altogether. A senior Israeli diplomat warned me this week that no agreement has been made for all of Syria, and that Israel would not be satisfied with a partial agreement to only keep Iranian forces away from its border. Have you watched the advertisement by this coffee brand that shows how a guy, who stammers, goes on to become a stand-up comedian? It portrays the optimism of that guy to turn his weakness into an ability to make other people laugh. He uses his stammering as a source of suspense underlying in the upcoming joke. He turns what many see as a weakness into his strength. This is a skill we all should develop.