Chhattisgarh to decide power politics for 2019 general polls
may also fracture the tribal votes in other parts of Chhattisgarh. This could dent the Congress vote. The BSP and Ajit Jogi are now clearly evolving as a third force in the coming elections.
A multi-cornered contest may go in the favour of the BJP even as a bipolar contest suits the Congress.
In Chhattisgarh, the BSP has a strong base in areas such as Janjgir, Sarangarh and zones which border Maharashtra. The Scheduled Castes (SC) constitute 11.6% of the total population of the state. If a section of these SC votes joins with the votes of BSP candidates’ own castes and sympathiser communities, the party could do better than most expect. But even if BSP candidates don’t win in many seats in Chhattisgarh, they may reduce the votes of opponents and affect the electoral outcome. It may result in defeat for candidates of both, or one of the national parties, in the state.
This has been a classic BSP strategy from the very beginning — pehle harenge, phir harayenge (first we will face defeat, and then defeat opponents). It means the BSP wants to emerge as a factor capable of defeating the dominant party and, in the process, get stronger.
This then gives it enough of a base and impetus to enable the winnability of their candidates in the next elections.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BSP has announced it will contest assembly elections alone. However, the possibility of a Congress-bsp alliance is still open. This announcement is being widely viewed as BSP strategy to assert and bargain for a good number seats for the party.
If the BSP does contest this election as a third force, it may benefit the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government. The Scheduled Castes constitute 15.6% of the state’s population.
While the BSP claims this is their vote base, the nature of SC votes is not homogeneous. It is fragmented in favour of various political parties. But in the Vindhya region, Chambal division and the areas of Baghelkhand which are adjoining areas of the Uttar Pradesh border, the BSP has a degree of impressive influence.
The nature of SC habitats in the state is sporadic and scattered. While in some regions the BSP could win, in other areas it could once again “cut” votes. An erosion of even a small percentage of votes from the existing vote bank of both these parties -- the BJP and the Congress -- may cause a defeat for them depending on local specifics.
Even if the BSP wins a small number of seats in both states, and the overall outcome is a hung assembly, it will then negotiate hard for a share in the power structure.
Irrespective of whether the BSP wins or loses, these state elections are going to prepare the ground for negotiation of seats and power politics for the 2019 parliamentary elections. The same may happen for the BJP. If it loses these states in the assembly election, its allies will step up pressure for a higher number of seats for the 2019 elections. Mayawati has thrown open Indian politics with her unpredictability yet again.