Quality education, health services drive family size
UNFPA POPULATION REPORT 2018 Real progress happens in states with high literacy and when people regard fertility as a conscious choice that they can control. Reliable methods of contraception must also be widely available, report says
India’s population growth story is far more complicated than its bringing down the total fertility rate (TFR) —the average number of births a woman has in her lifetime – to 2.3.
More than half of India’s population lives in states where the population has stopped growing, with the TFR in urban India and 18 states having fallen below the replacement level of 2.1, which is when the population stops growing.
Yet another one-third of the country’s population has TFR between 2.5 and 3, with the rates being the highest 3.4 in Bihar, which is home to 10% of the population. The country’s demographic transition varies not just widely across regions lescent (10-19 years) and every third a and states, but also across districts. The young person (10-24 years). Every year, states in southern India and a few other 12-14 million people enter the workforce, regions, including Delhi, have reduced largely from the northern states. fertility and deaths at a much faster rate “India needs to invest in the health, than the rest of the country. education and technical skill develop
According to demographer Ansley ment of this age group to leverage its comCoale, fertility rates begin to fall in a suspetitive advantage for economic growth,” tained way when people consider fertility said Poonam Muttreja, executive a conscious choice that they can control, director of the Population Foundation of when they believe that having smaller India. families is advantageous, and when reliaRapid fertility decline raises the share ble methods of contraception are widely of working age population( ages 15-49 available. “Family size, whether small or years) and leads to a corresponding fall in large, is intertwined with reproductive the dependency ratio. After a few decrights, which are tied to many other ades, however, this demographic advanrights, such as those to health and educatage is lost as the share of the elderly poption, adequate income, the freedom to ulation increases. make choices, and non-discrimination. Low dependency ratio is the period of Where all rights are realised, people tend demographic dividend, which provides a to thrive. Where they are not, people are window of opportunity to countries to not able to realize their potential, and ferboost productivity and economic growth. tility rates tend to be higher or lower than A dependency ratio of less than 67% what most people really want,” said the boosts growth.
UNFPA State of the World Population India is set to ride this wave, with its Report 2018. dependency ratio falling from 75% in 2001 to 65% in 2011. It is projected to fall to 55% in 2021, where it will remain for two decades before beginning to close at 2041 and finally closing in 2061, when the ageing population will push up the dependency
HOW INDIA GROWS
How India’s populations story plays out depends on India’s young population.every fifth person in India is an ado- ratio above the critical 67%.
While Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which led the demographic transition in India, are already gaining from their shrunken population, they will lose the dividend before the when their population ages. In sharp contrast, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will reach a dependency ratio below 67% only by 2021.
1940s MIND THE GAP
With the demographic dividend varying so widely between states, India’s challenge is to implement customised and differential policies that correspond with each state’s level of demographic transition.
“Government policies must focus on social and health security and promoting new employment skills for the ageing population in the demographically advanced states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Andhra, Gujarat, Punjab, Himachal and West Bengal,” said ,” said Shailaja Chandra, former executive director, Population Stabilisation Fund.
“With the population ageing, we need to focus on building skills to provide care, including health and social services, and establish old-age homes and housing models where the older population can live independently with supportive facilities on call,” said Chandra.
In the six states where fertility remains high, promoting sexual and reproductive health services, providing quality education and vocational skills to young people must be prioritised.
“Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Iran and Turkey all saw substantial declines in infant and child mortality, partly because of wider reach of health-care systems, economic development, reduced poverty, and increased female enrolment in primary and secondary education,” said the UNFPA report. Other factors that led to lower fertility is decreasing infant and child mortality and strong national family planning programmes.
The age of marriage needs to be raised further so young girls are mature enough, physically, mentally and emotionally, to make the right reproductive choices, say experts.
In states with high fertility, contraceptive information and services must reach young people.
“An estimated 70% of the population momentum is fuelled by the young population and young girls don’t want to have kids as soon as they get married. Young couples, especially women, need the information and the tools to choose when and how many children they want,” said Muttreja.
“Young girls have less knowledge and access to contraception and health services and are more likely to succumb to pressure to start a family at a young age, which is not good for the health of both the mother and child,” said Muttreja.
“In the end, our success will not just come in reaching what we imagine is ideal fertility. The real measure of progress is people themselves: especially the well-being of women and girls, their enjoyment of their rights and full equality, and the life choices that they are free to make,” writes Natalia Kanem, executive director, UNFPA.