Exit polls predict a photo finish
“The anger was very palpable against the BJP in these elections and people were willing and happy to accept the blueprint given by the Congress,” said senior Congress leader Sachin Pilot, who is also the party’s contender for the top post in Rajasthan. “People want answers for questions which they have avoided for the last five years as prices rise, farmers are in distress and the economy is collapsing.”
He added: “It is very easy to see that the BJP is on the backfoot in all these five state assembly polls and the Congress is giving an alternative which most people are endorsing and that is the take away from these exit polls.”
A better result for the Congress will be a morale booster for the opposition party and Gandhi, after a series of debacles in state elections since the 2014 general elections. Earlier this year, the party formed a post-poll alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular) to retain power in Karnataka, where the BJP emerged as the single largest party.
BJP spokesman GVL Narasimha Rao said: “The Congress can gloat over exit poll results, but this happy feeling would be short-lived.”
The TRS, which spearheaded the Telangana statehood campaign that culminated in the creation of India’s youngest state out of Andhra Pradesh in June 2014, took a gamble in September when it opted for early elections and CM Rao, better known as KCR, dissolved the assembly.
KCR is facing a united challenge from the Congress, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Left that have formed a ‘mahakootami’ (grand alliance) to unseat the TRS.
The Congress could win anywhere between 101 and 145 seats in Rajasthan, according to separate exit polls conducted by ABP-CSDS Lokniti, India Today-axis, Republic C-voter and Times NOW-CNX. They predicted that the BJP might win 52-85 seats in the 200-member assembly; voting took place in 199 constituencies.
In Madhya Pradesh, three of these exit polls predicted an advantage for the Congress. Times NOW-CNX predicted a BJP majority, and ABP-CSDS Lokniti forecast a Congress win. India Today-axis and Republic-c Voter suggested the Congress might emerge as the single largest party in the 230-member House but fall short of the majority mark.
Projections for Chhattisgarh, where chief minister Raman Singh of the BJP aims to hold on to his bastion, were split. India Today-axis predicted a comfortable victory for the Congress and ABP-CSDS Lokniti for the BJP in the state with a 90-member assembly. Times NOW-CNX and Republic C-voter forecast a tight race.
Today’s Chanakya, which predicted PM Modi’s win in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, released its estimates for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, giving an edge to the Congress in all three states.
Madhya Pradesh (29), Rajasthan (25) and Chhattisgarh (11) account for a total 65 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, the BJP won 60 seats from these three states.
Incumbent TRS seemed to have an advantage in Telangana, with India Today-axis and Times NOW-CNX predicting a clear victory for the party. Republic C-voter forecast a close contest in the state, which has 119 assembly segments.
In Mizoram, which has 40 seats, Republic C-voter gave the MNF an upper hand against a Congress led by chief minister Lal Thanhawla in a tight race.
India Today-axis, too, said the MNF had an advantage in the northeastern state.