UK polls: What to expect
LONDON : It will be the second Brexit election: the 2017 one was called to seek a greater majority by the then prime minister, Theresa May; the December 12 one will decide whether Boris Johnson wins a majority and the UK leaves the EU on January 31, or another EU referendum is held.
British electoral politics has long been dominated by the Conservatives and Labour, but contending Brexit loyalties fractured the firmament, with smaller parties assuming positions of influence. Another hung parliament will make another extension of the Brexit date and another referendum more likely with a minority Labour government in power, since all parties except the Conservatives and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) favour it.
If Johnson leads the Conservatives
to a majority in the 650member House of Commons, the UK will leave the EU on January 31. If he falls short by 15 or 20 seats, Westminster will be in for another round of Brexit-related blood-letting.
The Conservatives won a slender majority in the 2015 election, but after the 2016 referendum, lost it in 2017. May remained in Downing Street with outside support from the 10-member DUP. The December election is essentially about whether Johnson is able to win a majority or not.
The situation of hung parliament will likely lead to non-conservative parties putting a minority Labour government in power with the mandate to hold another referendum. Labour has already committed itself to holding such a referendum, with ‘Remain in EU’ as one of the options.
Political scientist John Curtice said: “The Labour party doesn’t have to get more seats than the Tories. They just simply need to get Boris below 315... So at the end, this is pretty much a binary election.”
Johnson’s ability to win a majority faces challenge not so much from Labour, but by the division of votes by the newlyformed Brexit party in over 300 seats and the ‘Remain in EU’ alliance between the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and the Walesbased Plaid Cymru in 60 seats.
The majority mark is 326, but the effective mark is lower, because the speaker, three deputy speakers and MPS of Sinn Fein (who do not take up seats in the House) do not vote. The minority Johnson government could not get most legislation passed in parliament.
Labour is seeking to widen the discourse beyond Brexit, promising huge spending on health, internet and welfare.