Karvy crisis deepens as Sebi RBI may cut rates for 6th straight time pegs misuse at ₹2,800 crore
ECONOMISTS EXPECT RBI’S MPC TO CUT THE REPO RATE, AT WHICH RBI LENDS TO BANKS, BY 25BPS TO 4.9%
MUMBAI: The mess at Karvy Stock Broking Ltd seems to be much bigger than first believed. The markets regulator now estimates the misuse of client securities by the broker at ₹2,800 crore, 40% more than the ₹2,000 crore it determined earlier, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The misutilization is much larger according to the initial estimates of a forensic audit, Rafique Dada, the senior counsel appearing on behalf of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) at the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT), said on Friday.
The true extent of the mess at Karvy will be clear only when EY India Ltd, which is conducting a forensic audit on behalf of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE), submits its findings. Still, the crisis at Karvy highlights the risks clients face when they entrust their securities with brokerages.
Sebi has alleged that the broker borrowed against clients’ stocks and diverted some of their money to its real estate business.
The misutilization of client securities appears to be around ₹2,800 crore and all of it has been pledged with banks and nonbanking financial companies, said the second person on condition of anonymity.
“It is also likely that amount would increase further but that would emerge only after the forensic analysis is completed,” the person said on condition of anonymity.
Banks have ₹1,415 crore in fund-based exposure to Karvy and some more in non-fund based guarantees, added the person. The banks with exposure to Karvy, according to charge documents filed with the ministry of corporate affairs, include ICICI Bank (₹875 crore), HDFC Bank (₹195 crore), Indusind Bank (₹105 crore) and Aditya Birla Finance (₹100 crore).
On November 22, Sebi barred Karvy from acquiring new clients and from using power of attorney, thereby barring it from trading on behalf of clients, after the broker allegedly transferred clients’ money for other purposes and indulged in trade not authorized by them.
Banks have been making representations that they should be allowed ownership of these shares as they believe these are legitimate shares, but Sebi is unlikely to consider the request, said the second person.
“If banks get ownership of the shares and invoke the pledges, then it would be the clients who would be on the losing side,” the person said. “Right now, it is unclear how much of the bank exposure is based on Karvy’s securities and how much is based on client pledges. If the pledges are invoked on some client securities, then it is the clients who would need to bear huge losses. In that scenario, even investor protection fund would not be enough.”
NSE’S guidelines for Investor Protection and Education Fund, used for investors’ awareness and protection of their interests, cap individual payouts in case of default at ₹25 lakh.
MUMBAI: The central bank is likely to cut interest rates for the sixth straight time on December 5 despite a surprise spike in inflation, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) seeks to reverse a protracted growth slowdown in Asia’s third-largest economy.
Eight out of 10 economists and treasury heads surveyed by Mint expect RBI’S monetary policy committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate, at which RBI lends to banks, by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.9%, while maintaining an accommodative stance. Two expect the RBI to cut rates by 15bps.
Economic growth has slowed to 4.5% in the September quarter, its weakest pace since 2013, despite a cumulative 135bps cut in policy rates this year. Indian banks, saddled with record bad loans, have failed to transmit the rate cuts to borrowers.
Output of capital goods, which indicates investment activity in manufacturing, contracted 20.7% in September against a 6.9% expansion in the year-ago period. After the October MPC meeting, governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will maintain its accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth, even as it ensures that inflation remains within target.
“Completely in line with our expectation, GDP in Q2 printed a 26 quarter low with most sectors showing a decline. Core GVA (gross value added) excluding agriculture and government services has printed a low of 3.4%. This further emphatically underscores the need of policy focus shifting to reviving growth. We continue to expect RBI to execute another rate cut in December of 25bps,” Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank, said in a research note.
Despite the monetary stimulus thus far and a slew of government measures to boost the economy, economists do not expect an immediate recovery in growth momentum. Non-food credit growth has also slowed to 7.9% from a year earlier in the first week of November from 8.9% in October.
Inflation has also started accelerating with consumer price inflation quickening to 4.62% in October, breaching the 4% target for the first time since July 2018.
In its October policy, RBI projected CPI inflation at 3.5-3.7% for the second half of fiscal year 2019-20 and GDP growth at 6.1%. Many economists expect RBI to revise inflation forecast upwards to 4-4.5% and GDP growth forecast downwards to around 5-5.5% for the current fiscal year.
“We expect RBI to cut the repo rate by 25bps to 4.9% next week (December 5), while downgrading growth and revising higher its inflation projections. We expect incrementally the focus to now shift to government measures on specific sectors and to revitalise the financial sector,” Nomura Global Markets Research said in its recent report.