Reading the Muslim mind ahead of polls
Traditionally, Delhi Muslims have voted for the Congress. In 2013 and 2015, a majority of them shifted to the AAP. But given the shrill politics over the ongoing anti-caa protests, with whom will they go this time?
NEW DELHI: Atiqa Begum, 60, had never been to a protest. However, for the past two weeks, after finishing her household chores, she goes to a tent pitched about 500 metres from her house in Jafrabad where at least a hundred women have been staging a sit-in to protest the Citizenship Amendment Act. “It’s for my children and their children. Remaining silent is not an option anymore,” said Begum, who has been living in east Delhi’s Jafrabad, part of Seelampur Assembly constituency, for over three decades.
In Khureji, part of the Krishna Nagar constituency, a narrow alley has been covered by tent and turned into a 24x7 protest venue. In the evening, one can spot hundreds, in groups of 10-15, holding candles, playing recordings of patriotic speeches and songs, Shadab Hussain, a resident of the area, said.
Even as the Bharatiya Janata Party has targeted anti-caa (Citizenship (Amendment) Act) protests and protesters, including those at Shaheen Bagh, where a sit-in has been going on for 52 days, there has been political mobilisation among Muslims across the city, including in Jafrabad and Khureji.
The big question on everyone’s minds is: who will they vote for?
Traditionally, Muslims in Delhi have voted for the Congress. However, in 2013, a majority of them shifted loyalty to the Aam Aadmi Party. The transition was complete in 2015, when the Congress failed to win even a single seat.this time, will they vote for the Congress, which is raising the CAA issue, or continue to back AAP, which has steered clear of getting into a confrontation with the BJP on the topic?
In 2015, AAP, with a 54.34% vote share, won 67 seats in the 70-member Delhi assembly; the BJP may have won only three seats, but it ended up with a 32.19% vote share. And the Congress, with a 9.65% vote share, won no seat. The prevailing opinion is that if the Congress improves its performance, it will be at the cost of AAP.
There are at least five assembly constituencies where Muslims can sway the results: Matia Mahal, Ballimaran, Chandni Chowk, Okhla and Seelampur. Besides, Muslims form a significant part of the population in Rithala, Shahdara, Seemapuri, Babarpur and Mustafabad constituencies.
The CAA fast-tracks citizenship for people belonging to nonmuslim minorities from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan who entered India before December 31, 2014. The law has been challenged in the Supreme Court for being exclusionary and based on religion, and has resulted in widespread protests across India. In the north-eastern states, including Assam, there is fear that the law could legitimise outsiders and give them rights to scarce land and jobs. Many others, especially Muslims, are worried that the CAA will be implemented in tandem with the National Register of Citizens. One was implemented in Assam under the Supreme Court’s supervision, and excluded 1.9 million of the state’s residents, both Muslims and Hindus. Several BJP leaders, including the home minister, have said CAA will be implemented in tandem with NRC to drive out outsiders, with the former, presumably providing a way out to non-muslims from the three countries. The government has since clarified that there are no immediate plans to implement NRC.
Senior journalist Masoom Moradabadi, founding editor of Khabardar Jadeed, an Urdu daily, says the fact that the AAP is not focusing much on CAA shows the coming of age of the party. “Yes, the AAP has not spoken much on CAA. But it shows a certain level of political maturity on their part. Despite being boxed into a corner by the BJP on the issue, the AAP has maintained a studied silence without openly opposing the ongoing anti-caa protests. It is because they understand that during elections any stand can be interpreted in a different way by the opposition.”
He does not think this will make a difference to the Muslim vote . “As I see it, Muslims will back AAP again. You should understand that AAP appeals to the layman, the person whose religion is hunger. Such a person cannot be swayed by speeches loaded with communal slogans. What matters to such people is that they are getting free power and water, free health care, and good government schools in their vicinity,” he said.
In Babarpur, a seat held by senior AAP leader Gopal Rai, a small group is holding a protest against CAA. Mohd Shahid, 40, an entrepreneur and a resident, said Muslims in the area will support Rai solely because of the work done by his party in the past five years. “Although there are no big anti-caa protests here like in other parts of the city, the communal narrative propagated by the BJP has led to some concerns among Muslims . There are civic problems but the conversations are still very much focused on zero power bills,” he said.
In neighbouring Seelampur, the nature of contest is a bit different. The Congress has fielded its heavyweight Chaudhary Mateen from the seat. A five-time MLA from the constituency, Mateen has a huge following in the area. Many there say there is a groundswell of support for Mateen. Local residents also point to the fact that Haji Ishraque, the sitting AAP MLA who has been denied a ticket, has extended support to Mateen, possibly helping his cause. Supporters of Mateen are raising the CAA issue although there are significant civic challenges in the area.
“Sanitation is pathetic in our area. Heaps of garbage are all around. Around the Seelampur main market, you can spot garbage in different corners, sometimes the water supply too is very bad. The AAP MLA didn’t do much work and, maybe, that is why he was not given ticket this time,” said Haji Akhlaque, a local resident.
In Khureji, several residents say objectionable speeches by some BJP leaders in recent days may help consolidate the Muslim vote. “The AAP MLA, SK Bagga, has done work in our area and the Muslims are likely to back him again. Our constituency, Krishna Nagar, has a mixed population with people from different faiths and social strata. But if there is one thing that we all want, it is peace. No businessperson, no professional, no student nor homemaker can survive without peace,” said Shadab Talat, 45, a local resident, who works with a private firm in Delhi.
Moradabadi doesn’t think there has been any such consolidation; nor does he believe Muslims vote as a block. “When it comes to elections, Muslims have traditionally voted for the candidate who talk about their welfare, safety and social harmony.” But he does admit that the speeches by some BJP leaders have put off Muslims. “The speeches by the BJP leaders belie their agenda of ‘sabka sath, sabka vikas and sabka vishwas’ (with everyone, for everyone’s progress, and with everyone’s trust). Such speeches are unprecedented in the history of Delhi elections.”
Qasim Khan, a member of the minority wing of the AAP, said the party is focusing on the real issues. A resident of Vishwakarma Nagar, part of Shahdara assembly constituency, Khan said AAP leaders have time and again articulated their views on CAA and NRC. “Our party spoke against the law in Parliament. So, why should somebody accuse us of being silent on the issue? Moreover, the AAP represents a new brand of politics, which talks about the issues of jobs, safety, amenities. The communal narrative only shows the frustration of the opposition.” .
In old Delhi, which boasts one of the largest chunks of the city’s Muslim population, street-corner conversations are dominated by the communal turn that the elections have taken.
Faisal Malik, a resident of Ballimaran, says it’s hard to predict whether this will consolidate the Muslim vote.
In 2015, Ballimaran, Matia Mahal and Chandni Chowk, all old Delhi constituencies, went to the AAP . The party has changed its candidates from Matia Mahal and Chandni Chowk. Shoaib Iqbal, a five-time MLA who recently joined the AAP, is contesting on the party’s ticket from the first; and from Chandni Chowk, the AAP has fielded Parlad Singh Sawhney, a former MLA and Congress veteran. The sitting AAP MLA Alka Lamba has joined the Congress and is now contesting on its ticket.
“This is where the Jan Sangh was founded. Eminent Muslim personalities such as Hakim Ajmal Khan presided over the reception committee of the Hindu Mahasabha. This is the real melting pot, the real Hindustan. We are Dilliwalas, it is not possible to divide us or scare us. We understand the motives behind the communal agenda of some parties. Yes, it is for votes but they won’t get our vote,” said Mohammad Maroof, 58, a resident of Fatehpuri.
In Jamia Nagar, Okhla, ground zero of anti-caa protests, there is fear, determination and hope. Residents are angry over the recent shooting incidents, squarely blaming the police for giving what they claimed a free hand to anti-muslim elements.
“They are coming and shooting at us. Their leaders are spewing venom and they are targeting us. It is a scary situation. The entire government has turned against one protest by women and children,” said Mohd Hasan, a resident of Jamia Nagar, who studies in Jamia Millia Islamia, referring to the Shaheen Bagh protests and recent instances where two men have been arrested for firing on protesters. One fired in the air while the other fired at a Jamia students’ protest march, injuring one .
Locals said they are determined to carry on with their protests and keep it peaceful despite grave provocations. “The idea is to provoke us into making one mistake and then use it as an excuse to stifle the voice of dissent. But it is not going to happen,” said Azhar Kafeel, 38, a resident of Okhla Vihar.
Ahmad Hasan, a resident of Batla House, echoed Jaleel’s statement. “People have seen through the BJP’S game. We are not going to be fooled by any propaganda. We will back the party which will treat us as citizens and provide us what citizens need. You don’t need a government to talk about religion . You need it for governance, health care, education and safety,” said Hasan, 42, who works with a firm in Noida.