The PM must support workers, encourage rural economy, revive industry
Modi has both domestic credibility and international goodwill. But the pandemic will be his biggest test
Unprecedented crises such as the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pose huge challenges not just to the socioeconomic fabric of the country but also to the quality of leadership. At moments like this, it is important that the central leadership in India is able to work in collaboration with states as well as global leaders. To Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s credit, he has built up strong ties with world leaders, especially United States (US) President Donald Trump. On February 25, Modi hosted Trump and his family at Hyderabad House for lunch. In a reflection of the warmth and the cordiality that marked the event, talks between the two leaders and delegations went on for so long that US embassy officials had to step in to remind the guests that they had to leave for the next destination.
Among those present were top industrialists and dignitaries from both countries. Even when others began to leave, albeit reluctantly, Modi and Trump continued their discussions. Many noted that this sort of warm relationship between an Indian PM and a US President was rare, in fact, unprecedented.
But, there were already dark clouds on the horizon. A few kilometres from Hyderabad House, the government was struggling to control a terrifying communal riot that had got India much negative press across the world and tarnished its image to some extent. To add to this violence was the fact that a grave economic crisis was upon us. And then, Covid-19 began its lethal spread across the world, creating what is one of the biggest tragedies the world has faced in the past century.
This then is the time for Modi to take hard, perhaps even unpopular, decisions. He is often compared with the imperious Indira Gandhi. There are some similarities between the two leaders. Gandhi had total control of her party and the government, and so does Modi. She could take hard decisions and so does he. She was able to win over friends on the international circuit and he has been able to do so too. Both were backed by a commanding poll mandate.
Over the last six years, Modi has been firm in executing his decisions,. He started his second term with controversial decisions on issues such as the triple talaq law, striking down Article 370, and introducing the Citizenship (Amendment) Act. He had just begun on big ticket economic reforms when the pandemic swept through the country. Now, the question is whether he will be able to handle this successfully and get the economy back on track.
Millions of migrant workers have returned home. They have no jobs, no food security and little hope for the future at the moment. He has to instil confidence in them, kickstart the rural economy and oversee a revival of the industrial sector. All this requires enormous leadership skills.
The fifth phase of the lockdown has begun.
The earlier lockdowns have not been able to stop the pandemic, but they have brought time to mitigate its effects. A number of financial institutions have predicted that the economy will contract, and Reserve Bank of India’s governor seems to be of the same opinion.
Let us look to the past to see if there are lessons for the future. In 1965 when India was attacked by Pakistan, then PM Lal Bahadur Shastri formulated viable agricultural policies. He evaluated central planning and price control policies. In August 1965, he told Parliament that the government would lift many economic restrictions. He even wanted to devalue the currency, but his finance minister TT Krishnamachari stood in the way. But, unfortunately, Shastri passed away after this. His successor Indira Gandhi continued with his policies; she devalued the rupee in 1966. She pushed ahead with bank nationalisation and the abolition of privy purses.
The green revolution and the increase in industrialisation are the products of that era. All this helped her to deal with the drought of 1967. Again in 1979, during the Janata Party regime, GDP contracted. When Gandhi came back to power in 1980, she brought in a new industrial policy but also formed committees for trade and financial reforms. The role of the private sector was enlarged, though the government couched this in socialist jargon.
Testing times bring out the best and boldest in leaders. Modi does not have a family lineage like Indira Gandhi did, nor is he an accidental PM like PV Narasimha Rao or Manmohan Singh. Like his predecessors, he will have to navigate his way around many crises, the most severe of which confronts us today. He is not one to shy away from taking difficult decisions. Now, the PM has written a letter to his countrymen, with an appeal to unite. Trust generated by dialogue with common man was always his strength, now he is going to fight this battle with it.
Surreal is, perhaps, the only way to describe marking of the first anniversary of the Modi 2.0 government. As the government data detailing the pre-coronavirus disease destruction of the economy and the consequent ruination of crores of lives during the last year was being released, Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi was writing to all of us describing the year as “a golden chapter in the history of Indian democracy”. This ruination has been aggravated by the coronavirus pandemic and the unplanned and abrupt unilateral lockdown announced by the PM. This lockdown has neither strengthened the efforts to combat the pandemic nor has it provided any relief to beleaguered citizens. The situation continues to worsen.
India appears to have entered a posttruth society. The defines post-truth as “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief”. The propaganda and spin machine of the government projects a surreal world divorced from the truth.
The first year of this government has been traumatic. Apart from all other issues such as the economic downturn, increase in people’s miseries, assaults on democratic rights and civil liberties, this year has been traumatic for the single-minded focus with which this government began to systematically undermine India’s secular, democratic, republican order.
Among the attacks — the delivery of a verdict and not justice in the Ram temple site dispute in Ayodhya, the triple talaq criminalisation of only Muslim men, not other’ for deserting their wives — are two that spring to mind immediately.
Modi 2.0 began with an immediate assault on the Constitution with the abrogation of Article 370. In one stroke, the state of Jammu and Kashmir became a part of history and was bifurcated into Union territories. The promises made during the freedom movement and the Constitution have been betrayed. The manner in which this was done was an affront to the constitutional scheme of things. By dissolving the elected assembly and not holding the elections along with the 2019 general elections, this government deliberately bypassed the constitutional stipulation that the border of any state in India cannot be altered without the concurrence of the assembly. As the assembly was non-existent, the governor appointed by the Centre was presumed to be the substitute, whose consent was naturally obtained. The entire exercise was done surreptitiously.
Then came the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), a brazen violation of the Constitution in stipulating religion as a criterion for citizenship. The Constitution underlines the equality of every citizen, irrespective of caste, creed, gender or any other attribute. The corollary to CAA was the National Population Register on whose basis the National Register of Citizens would be prepared. This exercise was rightly seen by many as the intensification of communal polarisation that feeds into the larger construct of targeting the Muslim minority. These two, along with many other assaults, are part of the effort to transform a secular, democratic, republican India into an intolerant theocratic, exclusivist fascistic state, which is the project of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological mentor of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Citizenship is the fundamental requirement for every other right provided by the Constitution. Once people are stripped of their citizenship, they stand automatically stripped of all their rights and liberties in India.
These assaults on the Constitution were accompanied by the weakening of the constitutional institutions. Both these issues were challenged in the Supreme Court (SC) and continues to remain there without being heard, considered or adjudicated on. The SC has chosen to consider matters such as anticipatory bail to journalists charged with aiding campaigns of hate as being more important than the defence of the Constitution. From the deepest recesses of my memory come surging images of courts during South Africa’s apartheid regime where criminals were acquitted, and the victims prosecuted. Retired SC Justice Gopala Gowda recently commented that the draconian experience of the infamous ADM Jabalpur case in which anyone considered a political threat to authorities could be taken into custody without trial, during the Emergency, is now passé.
The four foundational pillars of the Constitution — secular democracy; social justice; federalism; and economic self-reliance — are taking a severe beating. Sharpening communal polarisation and the undermining of secularism are accompanied by attacks on any expression of dissent. Draconian laws such as the Sedition Act, the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act and the National Security Act are used. The stigma of social oppression has worsened.
There is increasing centralisation of all authority by the central government bypassing elected state governments, negating federalism. A unitary State is required not only to centralise authority to facilitate the realisation of the RSS project but also to create a surveillance-based “security State”.
The grandiose announcement of ~20 lakh crore financial package in the name of selfreliance is nothing but a blueprint for India’s self-subservience. It provides profit maximisation for foreign and domestic corporates. The net result will be the further widening of economic inequalities which have already reached alarming levels.
Such are the dark clouds that have engulfed the Indian Republic during the last year. The silver lining must be enlarged by all of us together to overshadow and consume these dark clouds.