The importance of flood forecasting
Both structural and non-structural measures need to be improved
On Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a meeting with chief ministers and ministers of Kerala, Karnataka, Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra to review the flood situation in these states. During the meeting, PM emphasised the need for better coordination between central and state agencies to have a permanent system for forecasting floods and the extensive use of innovative technologies to improve the forecast and warning system. Mr Modi’s recommendations are significant because every year floods upend lives and livelihoods and destroy critical infrastructure and biodiversity. They also put enormous stress on finances.
While the government’s Central Water Commission (CWC) has modernised its flood management system over the years, there are still massive gaps that need to be filled to make it a much more responsive system. Two types of measures are taken for flood protection: Structural (embankments, dams, reservoirs, and natural detention basins), and non-structural (flood forecasting and warning, floodplain zoning).
There are several problems with both. On the structural side, the management of reservoirs and dams, maintenance of embankments and data collection on a river’s silt-bearing capacity have to be improved. On the non-structural side, data on river flow and discharge must be enhanced; the installation and maintenance of technical equipment such as gauges have to be expedited. Also critical is how the information on floods is given to the public; it has to be timely, useful and in a non-technical language. Finally, an independent evaluation of the flood forecasting system must be put in place to identify the gaps in the system, and ensure that CWC performs its role better than it is doing now.
Finding a vaccine for Sars-cov-2 has become the single-point agenda for the global scientific fraternity. No other disease has seen such unwavering focus in recent memory. The public believes — and rightly so — that the pandemic will only be curtailed once an effective vaccine becomes available.
How many vaccines are currently being tested? As per the World Health Organization (WHO), there are at least 28 coronavirus vaccines in clinical trials around the world, including four that have successfully completed the phase 2 expanded safety trials. These have now entered phase 3 for wider testing and assessing effectiveness. Another 150-plus are in the early stage of development.
Vaccines are an article of faith for all of us because they have eradicated diseases that have ravaged humanity for millennia. The reason why vaccines are safe, and may perhaps be the most effective exit strategy from an infectious pandemic, is because they have generally undergone years, if not decades, of intensive research and development. The fastest vaccine ever developed is the one for mumps, and even that took over four years.
However, with Covid-19, time is a luxury we can ill-afford. Even so, the major companies still estimate a minimum of 12-18 months before a vaccine will be ready for manufacture. But so far, the prospects look bright although it will be a heroic act if even this timeline is achieved. It is equally possible that the effectiveness level of the best of the vaccine(s) may not be as high as one would desire.
Researchers have used many different methods for making proteins that are a “lookalike” of the S protein of the original virus, but have the ability to trigger the immune system of the host to induce both a neutralising antibody and a memory T-cell response.
Because vaccines eventually have to be administered to billions of healthy people, the path to their development is often vigorous and time-consuming. The need to perform extensive animal studies to ensure the safety and effectiveness of the product, prior to the extended human trials, cannot be overstated. Further, careful monitoring is needed to document evidence of any undesirable side effects.
Of the several trials underway, a few are real front-runners. One is the vaccine, called Chadox1 designed by Oxford University and developed by Astrazeneca. Made from a genetically-engineered virus that causes the common cold in chimpanzees, it has been heavily modified such that it cannot cause infection in humans. Published results on the phase 1/2 randomised-controlled trial of this vaccine involving 1,077 volunteers from ages 18 to 55 in the United Kingdom are promising so far. However, it is too early to ascertain whether it is safe enough to offer protection.
Phase 3 trials of this vaccine involving variable age groups among different ethnic groups in several countries are underway. There are other potentially viable candidates, including Sinovac from China and Biontech Pfizer from Germany, both of which have entered phase 3 trials.
Another vaccine that has shown promise is the one being developed by the US Biotech firm, Moderna, based on a messenger ribonucleic acid (MRNA) platform. Labelled as the MRNA-1273 vaccine, it has revealed a good safety profile in all volunteers who received high doses. Crucially, the 100 microgram dose group elicited high neutralisation antibody and robust memory T-cell responses. This vaccine has also entered the crucial phase 3 trial stage.
India, with its world-class manufacturing hubs, is a powerhouse of vaccine production. About half of the vaccine requirements of the world are met by India. The Punebased Serum Institute of India is partnering with Astrazeneca to produce bulk doses of its vaccine and has also received the Drug Controller General of India’s permission to conduct phase 3 trials on over 1,400 volunteers from India.
Besides, at least seven indigenous candidate vaccines are under various phases of trial in India, of which two, namely Bharat Biotech and Zydus-cadila, have already entered phase 1 trials after successful preclinical testing.
The critical aspect of the process is to develop a protein that must be close to the original virus, and against which the body is able to raise antibodies for neutralising the virus. Any deviation could lead to the development of “blocking factors” through a process called Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE).
Simply put, rather than neutralising the virus, such antibodies could do the opposite, namely facilitate further virus entry into cells. This has happened earlier for the dengue virus where the vaccine, rather than conferring protection, actually acted like a silent primary infection.
Recently, the Indian Council of Medical Research organised an international symposium to discuss novel ideas in science and ethics of vaccines against Covid-19. Most speakers highlighted the need for adopting best regulatory and ethical practices even at the cost of speed, full compliance of human rights and above all, the need to develop policies and procedures for “equitable access”, should an effective vaccine become available, possibly before next summer.
Until an appropriate vaccine becomes available as the exit strategy for Covid-19, people must also contribute and help the health authorities slow the spread of the virus. Adopting simple habits in day-to-day life such as social distancing, mask-wearing whenever in public places and regular hand-washing would go a long way in controlling the infection.
In 1960, history was created when a littleknown senator from Massachusetts, John F Kennedy overshadowed Richard Nixon, then president DD Eisenhower’s vice-president, in the first televised debate in the United States (US). Television, since then, emerged as a powerful medium in election campaigns worldwide.
In the Bihar assembly elections, if they are held as scheduled towards the end of the year, a new form of campaigning, the virtual campaign, will take centre stage. If successful, it will change the course of elections in India. Home minister Amit Shah addressed a virtual rally on June 7. He, according to reports, spoke to half-a-million people in Bihar. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi too, has held virtual interactions with his party’s leaders, albeit on a limited scale. While the Janata Dal (United), led by chief minister Nitish Kumar, too planned a virtual rally on August 7, it was postponed.
Such virtual campaigns are possible because a huge constituency of digital users has been created. Over 500 million people in India are estimated to be connected, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently suggesting that a majority of them are in rural areas. The fact that Bihar is predominantly rural adds to its uniqueness. Further, Internet use is more gender-balanced in India, with a substantial segment of women users. This represents a rupture. In the Lalu Prasad era, when Sharad Pawar visited Patna, he was shocked to know that there were only 100 Internet connections in Patna, whereas in his parliamentary constituency, Baramati, there were 12,000 connections. But now, digital platforms have emerged as vehicles for the democratisation of information dissemination. Bihar will be the epicentre of how this will manifest itself in electoral politics in a post-covid-19 India.
But what about the substance of the electoral competition? It appears that Kumar has a tough challenge ahead. His third term, unlike the first two, has not been covered in glory. The administration’s weaknesses have got exposed in handling the Covid-19 situation. There is a degree of public anger.
However, he also has clear advantages. Kumar is still a major political brand in the state, equated with the improvements of his earlier terms. Even though his partnership with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not brought about benefits demanded by the JD(U), such as a special category status for Bihar or central university status for Patna University, the alliance is beneficial for both parties.
It has ensured a successful “coalition of extremes” from upper castes to Dalits. If Jitan Ram Manjhi joins the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the social coalition will become even more formidable. Kumar has also cultivated the women constituency by providing them 35% reservation in panchayati raj institutions and extending reservations for them in the police and government jobs. He has cultivated the more extreme segments of backward communities over the last 15 years and is seen as their leader. The inward migration in the wake of Covid-19 was mishandled initially, but the scheme of providing ~4,000 per migrant and economically marginal persons could work out well.
If the present “coalition of extremes” holds strong, the election outcome a foregone conclusion. The BJP’S campaign, notes of dissent by Lok Janshakti Party’s Chirag Paswan or the challenge by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’S Tejashwi Yadav are designed to fill the vacuum after the Kumar era in Bihar politics, ie, once his next, and by all assessments, final stint ends in 2025.
Bihar is the only state in the Hindi heartland where the BJP has not reached its plateau. It has preferred an alliance despite Modi’s popularity. After successful social engineering at the grassroots, it is now evoking regional sub-nationalism. Modi praised the valour of the Biharis and Bihar Regiment, and their sacrifice during the Indochina clashes. While extending the time limit of PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojna , Modi specifically mentioned on June 30 that it will continue up to the Chhath festival in November. Chhath is the only sub-national festival in Bihar, where all castes and classes participate without any social divide. The BJP is also trying to woo young people — all its district presidents in Bihar are in the age group of 40 to 45.
But it is not as much the strengths of the ruling alliance as the weaknesses of the Opposition that explain the current moment. Even though there is substantial anti-incumbency, perhaps natural after 15 years of rule, the Opposition is in disarray.
Tejashwi Yadav is yet to fill Lalu Prasad’s shoes. Hegemony over any caste — Yadavs in the case of the RJD — doesn’t last without formal political power. RJD has been out of power now for 15 years. And a social movement to sustain the support of the entire caste group is absent. The Congress and communist parties are in a state of drift. Upendra Kushwaha or Mukesh Sahni’s social strength does not match the political attention they draw.
Chirag Paswan is appealing to a broader provincial identity with the slogan of “Bihar First and Bihari First” to project himself as a pan-bihar leader but it is unlikely to yield immediate returns. Yashwant Sinha’s new front with the “Badlo Bihar” slogan lacks authenticity. Even though he was principal secretary to former chief minister Karpoori Thakur, he has not been associated with the social justice movement in Bihar and is instead seen as having proactively ensured the division of Bihar. His aides are past their political prime.
Given this context — where the ruling coalition has a strong CM face and social arithmetic on its side and the Opposition is adrift, leaderless, and without a substantial caste coalition — Bihar is set to see the return of the incumbent if elections happen.