In the rising second wave, India has become the only country apart from China to add more than half the daily new Covid-19 cases since the outbreak of the viral disease, data analysed by HT shows. On May 9, the seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases in I

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In the past month, India’s share in daily Covid-19 deaths has risen significantly. From 5.9% of daily deaths on average in the week ending April 9, India has gone to recording 30.6% of daily deaths in the week ending May 9.

Unlike new cases, however, two countries other than China and India have had an average share of over 30% in daily deaths. These are Italy, whose highest share in global deaths was 54.1% in the week ending March 14, 2020; and the United States, whose 0 28-Jan-20 highest share in global deaths was 34% in the week ending April 25, 2020. The deaths in India could still surpass the numbers recorded in Italy and the US. India’s share in global deaths – when plotted with a 14-day lag -- has closely followed it’s share in global cases. If this continues for another fortnight,

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India might be contributing a majority of new deaths in the world, too, where it will only have Italy (from mid-march last year) and China (from January to early March last year) for company. At the peak of the first wave, India’s share in global deaths was about 11 percentage points short of its share in global cases even when plotted with a lag. Two possible reasons for this could be undercounting of deaths when the health system gets overwhelmed or a higher share of younger persons in new cases when new cases peak. On April 1 this year, for instance, there was a 3.2 percentage point difference between India’s share in global cases and lagged share in deaths. This gap rose to 9.8 centage points by April 26, when India’s share in global cases rose to 40.3%.