India will become $30-trillion economy by 2047, says Goyal

NEW DELHI: India, which is on course to becoming a global superpower in 25 years, will be a $30 trillion economy by 2047, Union commerce minister Piyush Goyal said on Saturday, and predicted that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be re-elected with overwhelming majorities in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat.

Speaking at the 20th Hindustan Times Leadership Summit, Goyal said the world recognises India as an important economic power because of its political stability, its thrust on a corruption-free society, and its “aspirational billions” that wants “good things of life, is willing to experiment, to innovate, to take risk and is not afraid of failure”.

“I believe that the world today, whether it’s the political world, whether it’s the business world, people… most part of the world recognises that India has arrived. They can very clearly see the India story, not only the economic story but also as a nation… that shows a lot of positivity in mindset,” he said, during a conversation with Anand Narasimhan, senior anchor and managing editor of Network18.

Goyal said India is a nation with a huge demographic dividend, is providing talent to the world and its robust economy is set to lead global growth. “Even though it is a three-anda-half trillion-dollar economy today, every statistic and every mathematical formula that you may want to use, clearly shows you (an) upward of $30 trillion economy when we celebrate 100 years of Independence,” he said.

“When you put all of these together, very clearly you can see… (India) as one bright spot in the world, which will, going forward, not only change the lives of… a billion-and-a-half people, but probably help the world economy grow because they would be dependent a lot on India, its growth story, market, demand and talent,” he said.

“And, therefore, the topline has a very robust growth ahead of it, the bottomline is going to have exponential growth and the headline is that India is going to be a global superpower in the next 25 years,” he added.

When asked about the BJP’S prospects in forthcoming assembly elections, he said his party will win the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections by a huge margin because the leader of opposition had “no guts” to campaign in the state during the entire poll period. “I’m dismayed. Elections are happening in Gujarat and Himachal, but ‘yatra’ is happening in Kerala and Tamil Nadu,” he said, referring to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ which is likely to skip both the states.

Goyal said the anti-incumbency narrative for hilly states is no longer valid after the Uttarakhand elections. Many of these states used to vote out the incumbent in every election. “Now, pro-incumbency is also valued,” he said, adding that the voters are getting conscious about the value of their vote and cast it in favour of a party that can provide a decisive and honest government.

Goyal, also the leader of the house in the Rajya Sabha, said BJP is “disciplined” and focused on the development of the nation. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s mantra is clear… elections will come and go, you do your job, you do your duty (as representative of the people), just like he expects the nation to do its duty,” he said.

While delivering his Independence Day speech on August 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke about five pledges, or ‘panch pran’, for the next 25 years – the goal of a developed India, removing colonial mindset, taking pride in India’s roots, unity, and a sense of duty among the citizens. Goyal said this was the guiding force that would make India a developed nation.

‘BJP will cross 150 in Gujarat’

On the Gujarat assembly election, Goyal said unlike previous polls, when the ‘Patidaars’ , a powerful caste group, were unhappy with the BJP which has not lost an election in the state since 1995, there is no confusion and community members are with the BJP this time.

“About this election (forthcoming Gujarat assembly election), whatever is my political understanding (based on interaction with farmers, small entrepreneurs, party workers and people of Gujarat), I think, this time, BJP will have a historic victory in Gujarat… historic … ‘150 paar hogi’ (number of BJP seats will cross 150 in the state assembly),” he said. Gujarat has a 182-member house.

Supporting his assessment of the Gujarat polls, Goyal cited his previous prediction that he made during the HTLS Summit in 2018, where he predicted 297-303 seats for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections the following year. The party won 303 seats.

Goyal said people are supporting BJP because of the decisive leadership of PM Narendra Modi and India will become a “global superpower” under his leadership, he said.

The commerce minister said almost all countries, including advanced economies, aspire to become India’s trade partners. He said India is for rule-based, mutually beneficial trade deals, but cannot compromise on national interests.

The Modi government does not sign trade agreements indiscriminately, he said, citing the example of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). India decided to quit the RCEP deal, initiated during the Congress-led UPA government, at the eleventh hour because it was not good for India and a major beneficiary instead would have been China.

Goyal was confident about India’s exports. He said external headwinds, such as geopolitical turbulence, high inflation in advanced economies, and tightening of interest rates globally would impact exports but despite that, India’s merchandise exports would record a double-digit growth in 2022-23. India’s merchandise and services exports grew 34.5% in 2021-22 to a record $670 billion.

He said India is not negotiating an FTA with the US but assured the trade ties between the two countries are improving, citing the ongoing visit by US treasury secretary Janet Yellen. He said the bilateral trade between India and the US in goods and services would reach $500-600 billion by 2030. The current bilateral trade between the two partners is about $175 billion.

On India joining the trade pillar of the Us-led Indo-pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), the minister said it would depend on what India would get in return in that sector.

On September 10, India opted out of the trade pillar of the 14-member IPEF. It, however, agreed to join the remaining three pillars -- supply chains, clean economy and fair economy.

“With regard to joining the trade pillar…, India decides its strategy on its own terms... If you want binding commitments (from India) on different subjects, tell me what I am getting in return. It has to be good for my people and my country. What you give me in return will determine whether I will join the trade pillar. You negotiate and if we see some advantage, then we will join,” he said.