3 Cotton and groundnut might be the X-factor...

Agriculture in Gujarat is very different from that in most states in the country in terms of the composition of output. For example, while cereals had a 27% nominal share in value of crop production at the all-india level in 2019-20 – the latest period for which National Account Statistics (NAS) data is available – this number was just 10% in Gujarat. Two crops, namely cotton and groundnut, play a very important role in the farm economy of Gujarat. NAS data shows that for the period between 2011-12 and 2019-20, the share of these two crops in total value of crop production in Gujarat has been as high as 40% in both real and nominal terms. A comparison of the nominal and real share of these two crops in total value of crop production shows that the former shows a much bigger fluctuation than the latter.

This is most likely a reflection of the fact that farm incomes from these two crops are influenced more by volatility in market prices than physical production.