4 ...and prices of both are at an all-time high currently, in sharp contrast to 2017

Commodity price data from CMIE shows this clearly. The per quintal price of groundnut and cotton was ₹5,857 and ₹7,876 respectively in October 2022. This is significantly higher than the October 2017 price of ₹4,150 and ₹4,430, the corresponding period when assembly elections were last held in Gujarat. Lest one gets the idea that the rise in prices of these two crops is just nominal inflation, it is important to underline that October 2017 prices were lower than what they had been in the past for both these crops.

In fact, a comparison of this fiscal year’s average prices with projected cost of cultivation by Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) shows that profitability for these two crops is the best in the last 10 years.

To be sure, it is possible that the cost of cultivation for these two crops could have increased because of high inflation for agricultural inputs. However, it is likely that the nominal boom in prices of two most important crops for Gujarat’s farmers has muted the rural anger in these elections. The results from rural constituencies will conclusively prove or refute this argument.