In Bihar, the local has indeed turned vocal
Ending his campaign for the Bihar assembly polls, chief minister (CM) Nitish Kumar said that this is his last election. But irrespective of whether it is, it has definitely been his toughest one in the past decade-and-a-half as exit polls now confirm. Why is it that Kumar is today struggling in a state that got rid of the stench of caste-wars, massacres and lawlessness 15 years ago by voting for him in 2005 and reposing faith in him again in 2010 and 2015?
Nitish Kumar gave Bihar a dream run from 2005 to 2010. The nightmares of kidnapping and extortion were overnight buried with vikas (development) that was fuelled by good governance. Kumar consolidated, aided in no small measure by a somewhat embedded media, showcasing his mesmeric chemistry with people who showered love on him for gifts of new roads, growing power supply and peace.
Kumar transformed Bihar, with roads, electricity, school buildings and bicycles to schoolgirls. He also did bring in jobs. The police forces were augmented. Women battalions and constabulary were raised. Bihar’s feudal misogyny caved in as families now took pride in their betis (daughters). However, beneath the altar of his development model, the youth were desperately searching for employment.
There is, in some ways, a parallel with the 2011 election in West Bengal, which saw the end of Left rule — and where the limited shelflife of its revolutionary land reforms, Operation Barga, had become clear. In three decades, descendants of beneficiaries had moved out for employment. Land holdings couldn’t sustain multiplying families anymore. And the Left’s efforts at industrialisation were politically mismanaged. Bihar — in the Lalu Prasad-Rabri Devi era and before — had suffered land and caste wars. The Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), now partners, had been at diametrically opposite ends. Kumar succeeded in ensuring that peace returned to the villages. But that was not enough.
Migration for education, jobs and a better life has been a steady Bihari phenomenon. And that is fundamentally because the political economy in the state, just like in West Bengal, is broken. There has been a fragmentation of land — and agriculture is neither seen as aspirational nor deemed to be a pragmatic option. Manufacturing and services are limited. Those with resources invest in the education of their children with the sole objective of sending them out of Bihar for professional advancement. Those without resources make desperate journeys to cities for livelihood.
It goes to the media’s credit that the plight of Biharis in their escape home during the lockdown was captured. “It is better to die at home” became a soulful anthem that soon after stirred the air with cries for jobs at home. A good many returnees went back, many taken by contractors by air or road, but many others stayed behind, retrenched. Many among them are the educated whose aspirations appear to be dying young. When the polls were announced, Bihar’s young voters began asserting themselves — the local had, indeed, became vocal.
While the blame for migration for education and jobs cannot be put solely at Kumar’s doorstep, given that citizens generously credited him with the earlier turnaround, it is but inevitable that he will also face the ire of his Naya Bihar’s unmet aspirations. It did not help that from the master of managing political extremes, Kumar came to be perceived as a conjurer of survival politics.
The RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav leveraged the perception of this governance deficit and political vacillation. But he was not the only campaign phenomenon in Bihar. It was “Bihar ke do ladke” — Bihar’s two boys, the other being the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)’s Chirag Paswan. Both drew frenzied crowds. While Yadav promised jobs, Paswan promised to probe corruption, even jail for Kumar if proven guilty. It is the first time anyone was attacking Nitish personally on corruption, even though corruption in the ranks and an arrogant babudom remain Bihar’s worst kept secret. The storm against Kumar from two young men threaten not only to dwarf the CM but also inflict collateral damage on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the bargain, despite Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi‘s popularity. Aware of this challenge, the PM himself told Biharis that he needed Kumar for Bihar’s development.
The Opposition has also carefully, and smartly, targeted government servants. Among them are 3,74,000 contract teachers, who earn a fraction of what regular teachers get, whose numbers have dwindled to 65,000. Yadav promised them
equal pay for equal work. In addition, he also promised to double the honorarium of aanganwaadi sevikas, tola sevaks, jeevika didis and ASHA workers in an effort to wean the women vote.
For a Nitish Kumar who is on the back foot, survival hinges on the Modi magic. While his re-election in 2010 and 2015 was attributed to the gender vote, the 2020 poll is turning to be a generational vote. The results will reveal young Bihar’s mind on November 10. It will also reveal whether Nitish Kumar has swum ashore with the BJP — or the latter has sunk with Nitish Kumar.