In defeat, Tejashwi sets stage for future battles
This election has seen the 31-yr-old emerge from the shadow of his father Lalu Yadav, but the legacy of the former CM has also limited him in his first real poll charge
In a small village in Vaishali, during his first election in 2015, Tejashwi Yadav, now 31, was campaigning, going door-to-door, and asking for the blessings of elders. That election was centred largely on caste, with the then alliance of Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), questioning the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)‘s commitment to reservations.
When asked if caste would remain the defining element of Bihar’s politics, Yadav replied: “It is everywhere. In the United States, isn’t it about whites and blacks? Caste has been the way our society has been organised for centuries, and it will be the key for a very long time to come. It matters.”
Five years later, Yadav attempted to break his party’s traditional, almost exclusive, reliance on the politics of caste and exclusive focus on stitching a Muslim-Yadav alliance — by emphasizing “economic justice” in terms of rhetoric. This was accompanied by a more inclusive ticket distribution strategy; an appeal to an entire generation of young people across caste lines by promising jobs; and an energetic, interactive and dynamic campaign.
It was this campaign that led Yadav — and many other observers — to believe that this election would mark the moment of political transformation in Bihar, with not just a regime change but also a shift in the way political choices have traditionally been made in the state.
Indeed, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’s performance suggests that Yadav’s campaign helped the party secure its base. It has also marked Yadav’s own political ascendance — in the absence of his father, Lalu Prasad, he held his own in the campaign and has quashed any succession battles within the family — and marked himself as the next leader of RJD.
He has also gained credibility in Opposition ranks nationally, and will now be seen as a leader in his own right, and not just the son of his father.
Yet, the Tejashwi Yadav of 2020 did not win — because the Tejashwi Yadav of 2015 had it right. Caste matters in Bihar, and the very caste-religious coalition that makes RJD such a powerful force also signals the limits of its rise. Its own base of Muslims and Yadavs appears to have substantially consolidated behind the party — and RJD may have even weaned away sections of young citizens of other castes. But while this is enough to become an effective and strong opposition, it is clearly not enough to win in a largely bipolar contest, where other castes consolidate behind the rival.
That is what has happened in 2020. As three different leaders from three distinct parties in the fray in Bihar suggested, the very fact that Yadav’s rallies were drawing huge crowds gave rise to the perception that the Yadavs would return to power. This, in turn, triggered a counter-consolidation of other castes — the NDA’s famous “coalition of extremes” of upper castes, extreme backward classes, and marginalised Dalits — whose disillusionment with Nitish Kumar paled in comparison to their memory of the rule of Lalu Prasad which was marked by Yadav dominance.
That explains why in their campaigns, Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar kept going back to the rhetoric of “jungle raj” — used to describe the lawlessness of the Lalu years.
Many felt that attacking the Opposition for its governance record from 15 years ago reflected desperation, but it actually was a ploy to both ignite memories of the past and link Tejashwi Yadav to his father’s record.
As a senior minister in Bihar said, “We recognised that there was a mood for change. But our question was, should it change for better or for worse? Tejashwi represented change for the worse.”
That campaign ploy may have worked, and Yadav will be a disappointed man. But as someone who turned 31 on Monday, he has a long way to go in Indian politics — and has established himself as the face of the Opposition in Bihar.
How he reconciles his 2015 assessment of the centrality of caste with the baggage of poor governance of the Lalu Prasad years (which continues to drive away other social groups) will be his big political test. His attempt to reconcile these very conflicting strands in the 2020 elections led to a rise in his stature, but the failure to actually achieve this reconciliation put the brakes on his chief ministerial run.
What is clear is that the future political landscape in the state — if Nitish Kumar indeed has fought his last election — will primarily revolve around the BJP on one side, and Tejashwi Yadav on the other.
THE RASHTRIYA JANATA DAL (RJD)’S PERFORMANCE SUGGESTS THAT YADAV’S CAMPAIGN HELPED THE PARTY SECURE ITS BASE