OECD REVISES INDIA’S GROWTH ESTIMATE TO 12.6% FOR FY22
NEW DELHI: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday projected Indian economy to bounce back to 12.6% growth in FY22, the highest among G20 countries, aided by additional fiscal support after the coronavirus pandemic pushed the economy into recession after a gap of over 40 years.
“The recovery in activity continued in the fourth (December) quarter of 2020, despite new virus outbreaks in many economies and tighter containment measures. Global output remained around 1% lower than prior to the pandemic, with marked variation in the pace of recovery across economies. The rebound has been relatively fast in several large emerging-market economies. Activity moved above pre-pandemic levels in China, India and Turkey, helped by strong fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures and a recovery in manufacturing and construction,” the grouping of developed economies said in its interim economic outlook.
OECD increased India’s growth estimate for FY22 by 4.7 percentage points from 7.9% projected in December. For FY21, it expected the economy to contract 7.4% against 8% estimated by the government statistics office.
Separately, rating agency Crisil Ltd projected Indian economy to grow at 11% in FY22 driven by flattening of the Covid-19 affliction curve, roll-out of vaccinations, people learning to live with the new normal and investment-driven government spending.
However, the rating agency said as of this fiscal, the pace of growth will differ in the first and second halves of FY22. “While the first half of the next fiscal will benefit optically because of low-base effect, the second half would see a more broad-based pick-up in economic activity owing to a commodity price lift, large-scale vaccinations and likely stronger global growth,” it added.